Dem
47
GOP
53
Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ), one of the mainstays of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, passed away yesterday due to complications from the treatment he was receiving for cancer. He was 77, and was in the midst of his 12th term in the House.
Grijalva was the son of a bracero, and had a résumé that has "progressive" written all over it. He started his career as a community organizer, then became involved in education, and then was a longtime member of the Pima County Board of Supervisors before running for Congress. He was particularly focused on the environment and climate change, explaining that it's "for the babies." In view of this, he served on, and eventually rose to leadership of, the House Natural Resources Committee, which he chaired for 4 years, from 2015-19.
Grijalva is actually the second House Democrat to pass away this month. We missed this story, because of all the hullaballoo surrounding Donald Trump's non-SOTU, but the day after the speech, Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-TX) died suddenly. He was probably also a cancer victim, as he had been treated for bone cancer, but no official cause of death seems to have been announced.
Whereas Grijalva was a long-serving member of Congress, Turner just got there, having been elected to his first term last November as the replacement for Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D), who herself died suddenly last year. His 61-day term is the 14th-shortest in the history of Congress, though the third-shortest among those ended by death. Before his time in Congress, Turner served for 27 years as a Texas state Representative and then 8 years as mayor of Houston. He also worked as a lawyer, and was politically pretty progressive, particularly on immigration and education issues. Not as progressive as Grijalva, mind you, but not too far away, either.
The two passings mean that, for the moment, the Republicans have a 218-213 majority in the House, giving Mike Johnson some extra room to maneuver. Once the two empty seats in Florida are filled, it will almost certainly be 220-213. Then, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) will formally resign, and it will be 219-213. This is not likely to matter all that much, however, since the Republicans are barely able to pass budget bills, even up against a deadline. Passing anything else, especially without deadline pressure, will be harder. Or, at least, it was the last time the Republicans had the trifecta.
Grijalva's district (AZ-07) is D+15 and Turner's (TX-18) is D+23. So, once replacements are elected, the two men are all but certain to be replaced by Democrats. However, Arizona state law requires special elections to be announced on a rapid timeline, and then held on a slow timeline. And Texas state law allows special elections to be announced on a slow timeline, and then requires them to be held on a fairly rapid timeline. The upshot is that, in both cases, replacements are not likely to be seated until sometime this summer. (Z)