Mar.13

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

How Midterms Are Different from Presidential Elections

Midterm elections have historically differed from presidential elections in three ways, as follows:

• Turnout: Not as many people vote in midterms as in presidential elections. In some states, there is neither a race for senator or governor, so many people don't bother to vote. Congresscritter? State senator? Just not worth the trouble. The historical average turnout of eligible voters in presidential years since 1856 is 64%. For the midterms since then it is 49%, a gap of 15 points. Of course, the definition of "eligible voter" has changed since then, since back in 1856 it was only white men, and possibly only property-owing white men at that in some places. Here are the turnout rates since 1972, when the voting age was reduced to 18 nationwide:
  
  
  
  
• Demographics: Turnout in the midterms is not smaller because 15% of people in each demographic fail to show up. Different demographics have different amounts of interest in voting in the midterm years. In particular, white voters are overrepresented in the midterms by about 3 points. Young voters 18-29 are underrepresented by 6 points and seniors are overrepresented by 6 points. College graduates are overrepresented by 4 points. In other words older, white, college-educated voters show up in much larger numbers than younger, non-white, non-college voters.
  
  This cuts both ways. White voters are more Republican than non-white voters but college-educated voters are more Democratic than non-college voters.
  
  
• Partisan divide: But the biggest factor generally seems to be in partisanship. House incumbents from the party not in the White House almost always hold their seats if they run for reelection. Also, the president's party nearly always loses House seats and often Senate seats unless there is something very unusual going on. Here are the midterm results since 1962:
  
  
  
  Only twice since 1962 has the president's party won seats in the House, and each of those elections was special. In 1998, the Republicans were busy impeaching Bill Clinton for lying about his affair with Monica Lewinsky. The voters didn't see that as serious enough to impeach Clinton and the Democrats picked up 5 seats. In 2002, voters had fresh memories of George W. Bush's performance after the 9/11 attacks and rewarded him for it. Senate races in the midterms also tend to favor the opposition party.

On the average since 1972, the out party has improved its share of the two-party vote in the midterms by about 3 points, which means the margin changed by 6 points. Republicans won the House vote by two points in 2024, so if the Democrats improve their share they will win the House vote by 1 point in 2026. That may or may not be enough to swing the chamber. But if the Republicans prove too incompetent or unpopular during 2025 and 2026, it could be a blowout. (V)