Mar.12

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

California Governor's Race Is Getting Crowded

California is a large state with a lot of money, and its governorship is sometimes a springboard to even bigger and better things (though for Republicans more than Democrats). On top of that, the Golden State's "top two" primary system pretty much means that one fairly centrist Democrat will advance to the general, and that they will be joined by either a lefty Democrat or a Republican. So, there are effectively three different factions of political hopefuls who have some reasonable hope of securing a spot on the general election ballot when the governor's mansion is open, as it will be in 2026 due to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) being term-limited.

Yesterday, one of the state's most prominent lefties officially jumped in. That would be former representative Katie Porter (D), from Orange County. The last time you saw her, in 2024, she was getting trounced in the California U.S. Senate primary, taking a little over 15% of the vote, as compared to the 31% each that eventual nominees Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Steve Garvey laid claim to.

One could interpret that 2024 result as a sign that Californians aren't terribly interested in what Porter is selling. And that would be consistent with the state's recent electoral history; while it's certainly a blue state, a lot of that blue is moderate blue. The last real lefty to win statewide was probably Barbara Boxer in 2010. Despite Republican propaganda to the contrary, folks like Newsom, Schiff, Kamala Harris, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA), and—definitely—Dianne Feinstein hew much closer to the center of the spectrum than the progressive end.

That said, Porter is gambling that the current environment is ripe for her brand of in-your-face lefty politics. In case you couldn't guess, her campaign is going to be 100% anti-Trump, 100% of the time. In her PG-13 rated announcement video, she proclaimed: "I first ran for office to hold Trump accountable. I feel that same call to serve now to stop him from hurting Californians."

To the extent that you can put any faith in polling of a race close to 2 years away from Election Day, Porter is the favorite among candidates currently in the race. However, that comes with as many as three asterisks, which we'll get to in a moment. Before that, here's a quick rundown of the dozen other candidates who have already declared:

• Toni Atkins (D): She had a long career in the California legislature, serving as both Speaker of the State Assembly and President pro tempore of the California Senate before bumping up against term limits. She is a lesbian, and will try to corral the progressive/glass-ceiling-breaking vote on that basis. In fact, she already served as acting governor a couple of times (for a few hours on each occasion), and so is already sometimes described as the first openly gay governor of California.
  
  
• Stephen Cloobeck (D): He founded a business that sells timeshares to marks customers. He will be running a silly "California should be run by a businessman, as California, Inc." platform. California voters only buy that line when the person is an A-list actor (Arnold Schwarzenegger ran primarily on his business acumen). Cloobeck is not an A-list actor, and is not a serious candidate.
  
  
• Eleni Kounalakis (D): The current lieutenant governor was supposed to be the favorite, but hasn't gained much traction. If she can break through, she has a good chance to be the centrist/establishment candidate.
  
  
• Tony Thurmond (D): He is the California State Superintendent of Public Instruction, and is Black, so is hoping to pick up the votes of teachers and Black voters. That's probably not enough.
  
  
• Antonio Villaraigosa (D): The former L.A. mayor is currently the only Latino in the race, and wants to be the Latino candidate. It's not a bad thought, since the state is 40% Latino, which makes that the largest ethnic group in California. However, it's not a great thought, either, since a lot of California Latinos can't, or don't, vote. Consequently, the state hasn't had a Latino governor since 1848, when it was still part of Mexico, and the only Latino U.S. Senator it's had in that time had to be appointed first. Further, Villaraigosa was not a terribly popular or successful mayor, and he has a few skeletons in the closet.
  
  
• Betty Yee (D): She's been a mainstay of California politics for years, and would hope to attract the votes of Asian Californians. However, they are only about 15% of the state. Her ace in the hole, such as it is, is that she is the current vice chair of the California Democratic Party, so she has an inside track on establishment support and money. Incidentally, she declared her 2026 gubernatorial bid... back in 2019. That's gotta be some kind of record.
  
  
• Michael Younger (D): He's an outsider/lefty candidate. There are always a few of those, and in a state as big and expensive as California, they don't go anywhere. It's hard to reach millions of voters unless you either have an existing platform or a large personal fortune. In other words, he is not a serious candidate.
  
  
• Chad Bianco (R): On the Republican side, the bench is so shallow, it's much more plausible for a candidate of middling quality to have a real shot. Bianco, who is Riverside County Sheriff-Coroner, and will run a law and order campaign, is probably the leading Republican in the race right now. California voters do have an affinity for law and order platforms, though it's unlikely to be enough for him to beat whatever Democrat advances to the final round of voting.
  
  
• Sharifah Hardie (R): She is staunchly conservative and Black. In other words, she is running in the Larry Elder lane, sans penis. Elder didn't come close to winning in the 2021 recall election, and Hardie isn't going to come close to winning in the 2026 regular election.
  
  
• Jimmy Parker (R): He is a former judge who was apparently bored in retirement. He is not a serious candidate.
  
  
• Leo Zacky (R): Another "California, Inc. needs a businessman in charge" candidate, albeit from the other side of the aisle. The chicken magnate has run for governor twice before and failed to break 2% of the vote either time; expect Californians to tell him to cluck off yet again.
  
  
• Butch Ware (G): Even eco-friendly California doesn't care about the Green Party. The Greens get their 2% in the primary, and then they're done, because of the top-two system. Ware isn't going to change that dynamic.
  
  
• Javen Allen (I): California gubernatorial elections always attract a handful of unaffiliated actors, some of them mainstream, some of them pornographic, who are just looking to boost their name recognition. Allen is the first of those this cycle (he's mainstream, not porn, incidentally). His website looks like it was put together by a 6-year-old using Microsoft FrontPage. And, for some reason, it prominently features a picture of... Dubai.

That's the field, as it currently stands. And now, the asterisks that apply to Katie Porter's candidacy (and to the other candidates, too, in some cases). First, while she is polling in the 20s right now, which is better than the other candidates, that is partly because she has name recognition and an existing fanbase. It is better to have name recognition than not, but it's also an advantage that can fade quickly.

Second, and consistent with what we write above, there are more progressives in California than a lot of other states, but they are still a minority. Porter's share of the vote aligns pretty well with the size of the progressive wing of the California Democratic Party, and may represent her ceiling (or something close to it). It does not help that she's stepped on many establishment toes in her time, often for self-serving reasons. So, eventually, the Party machinery is going to line up staunchly behind whichever moderate is strongest.

Third, and this is the asterisk that dwarfs all others, Kamala Harris will likely jump into the race if she decides that another presidential run is not in the cards. If so, the former VP would be the overwhelming favorite; she's polling in the 60s (i.e., three times what Porter is polling at, and 10-20 times what the other Democrats are polling at). And if Harris does not get in, Alex Padilla might. Those are two very heavy hitters who potentially loom on the horizon.

So, it figures to be interesting, even if we already know that there's a 95%+ chance that the person left standing on November 3, 2026, will be a Democrat. (Z)