Dem 47
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GOP 53
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California Governor's Race Is Getting Crowded

California is a large state with a lot of money, and its governorship is sometimes a springboard to even bigger and better things (though for Republicans more than Democrats). On top of that, the Golden State's "top two" primary system pretty much means that one fairly centrist Democrat will advance to the general, and that they will be joined by either a lefty Democrat or a Republican. So, there are effectively three different factions of political hopefuls who have some reasonable hope of securing a spot on the general election ballot when the governor's mansion is open, as it will be in 2026 due to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) being term-limited.

Yesterday, one of the state's most prominent lefties officially jumped in. That would be former representative Katie Porter (D), from Orange County. The last time you saw her, in 2024, she was getting trounced in the California U.S. Senate primary, taking a little over 15% of the vote, as compared to the 31% each that eventual nominees Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Steve Garvey laid claim to.

One could interpret that 2024 result as a sign that Californians aren't terribly interested in what Porter is selling. And that would be consistent with the state's recent electoral history; while it's certainly a blue state, a lot of that blue is moderate blue. The last real lefty to win statewide was probably Barbara Boxer in 2010. Despite Republican propaganda to the contrary, folks like Newsom, Schiff, Kamala Harris, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA), and—definitely—Dianne Feinstein hew much closer to the center of the spectrum than the progressive end.

That said, Porter is gambling that the current environment is ripe for her brand of in-your-face lefty politics. In case you couldn't guess, her campaign is going to be 100% anti-Trump, 100% of the time. In her PG-13 rated announcement video, she proclaimed: "I first ran for office to hold Trump accountable. I feel that same call to serve now to stop him from hurting Californians."

To the extent that you can put any faith in polling of a race close to 2 years away from Election Day, Porter is the favorite among candidates currently in the race. However, that comes with as many as three asterisks, which we'll get to in a moment. Before that, here's a quick rundown of the dozen other candidates who have already declared:

That's the field, as it currently stands. And now, the asterisks that apply to Katie Porter's candidacy (and to the other candidates, too, in some cases). First, while she is polling in the 20s right now, which is better than the other candidates, that is partly because she has name recognition and an existing fanbase. It is better to have name recognition than not, but it's also an advantage that can fade quickly.

Second, and consistent with what we write above, there are more progressives in California than a lot of other states, but they are still a minority. Porter's share of the vote aligns pretty well with the size of the progressive wing of the California Democratic Party, and may represent her ceiling (or something close to it). It does not help that she's stepped on many establishment toes in her time, often for self-serving reasons. So, eventually, the Party machinery is going to line up staunchly behind whichever moderate is strongest.

Third, and this is the asterisk that dwarfs all others, Kamala Harris will likely jump into the race if she decides that another presidential run is not in the cards. If so, the former VP would be the overwhelming favorite; she's polling in the 60s (i.e., three times what Porter is polling at, and 10-20 times what the other Democrats are polling at). And if Harris does not get in, Alex Padilla might. Those are two very heavy hitters who potentially loom on the horizon.

So, it figures to be interesting, even if we already know that there's a 95%+ chance that the person left standing on November 3, 2026, will be a Democrat. (Z)



This item appeared on www.electoral-vote.com. Read it Monday through Friday for political and election news, Saturday for answers to reader's questions, and Sunday for letters from readers.

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