Dem
47
GOP
53
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) put his cat-herding skills on display yesterday. It took most of the day to pull it off, but he finally brought to the floor of the House his continuing resolution (CR) that keeps the government funded for the rest of the fiscal year, and got it passed 217-213.
The vote was almost entirely along party lines. The only Republican to defect was Thomas Massie (KY), who is most certainly a firebrand, and who has been the only member of his party to vote against a bill at least three times this year. He is now an enemy of the White House, even more so than before, and a primary opponent for 2026 will be found. That said, Donald Trump tried to primary Massie last year, and the Representative took 75.9% of the vote. That is because the district is R+19, so a moderate candidate isn't going to fly, while it's just not possible to out-crazy Massie from the right. So, he's pretty much got a license to defy Trump as he sees fit.
Meanwhile, the only Democrat to vote for the bill was Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME). Like Massie, Golden is his party's black (golden?) sheep. If you learn that on [Vote X], only one Democrat crossed the aisle to side with the Republicans, it is a smart bet that the Democrat in question is either Golden or Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA). They represent districts that are R+6 (Golden) and R+5 (Gluesenkamp Perez), so that just might have something to do with it. "This CR is not perfect, but a shutdown would be worse," Golden explained afterward.
Although Golden is (with Perez) the Blue Doggiest of Blue Dog Democrats, his explanation is not at all unreasonable. The CR will now head to the Senate which, with the House having adjourned until next week, is now in a take-it-or-leave-it situation. There are enough Republican votes to pass the bill; the question is whether there are enough Democratic votes for a filibuster. And the fact is, the blue team has been put into a very tough position.
If the Democrats do end up filibustering the bill, and thus shutting down the government, there are three significant problems. The first, of course, is that they might well get the blame for any ill-effects of a shutdown, including ill effects to the economy that may or may not actually have to do with the shutdown. For example, if the Dow drops 2,000 points next week, Republican politicians and right-wing media outlets will say "See? It's because the Democrats blocked funding for the government!" That might stick. Trump is currently in the middle of a project of destroying the U.S. economy, and the Democrats would much prefer that he own that, 100%. As the old saying goes, "When your opponent is shooting themselves in the foot, let them."
The second problem, and the one that Golden was presumably referring to, is that a shutdown would do a fair bit of harm. Of course there is the usual harm that a shutdown does, in terms of disrupting the economy, causing federal workers to go without paychecks, etc. However, at the moment, there is also the extremely un-usual harm being done by Elon Musk and his Muskovites. Democrats fear, not unreasonably, that a shutdown would be an engraved invitation to His MAGAsty Donald I and the DOGE crew to turn up the intensity on their efforts. If the government were to be shut down for a few weeks—or a few months—then some sizable number of federal employees would likely quit, between the lack of pay and the lack of certainty there would be a job waiting for them on the other side of the shutdown.
And the third problem boils down to this question: What better outcome is available to the Democrats? Again, if the government shuts down, either because of Democratic action, or because of Republican infighting, that likely works to the benefit of Musk and DOGE. On the other hand, if the Republicans manage to reach agreement on a proper budget, and not a CR, it's going to be even less friendly to the Democrats' priorities than the CR is. So, that means the Democrats' only real "win" is a different CR, with slightly more Democratic-friendly terms. Such a win would be... not exactly a resounding victory.
All of this said, there are also at least two significant problems with allowing the CR to become law. The first, as we noted yesterday, is that it will mean the blue team has to swallow a very bitter pill. Though the measure is being spun/framed as a continuation of the Biden budget, it is not. It increases funding for several Republican priorities, notably defense and border enforcement, and cuts spending for several Democratic priorities, notably healthcare and aid to poor families. The funding changes are not massive, but they're there. Meanwhile, there's nothing in the bill to rein in Musk.
And that leads to the other issue. Democratic voters, on the whole, want to see some fire in the bellies of the Democratic members of Congress. They want resistance. They want, in particular, something to be done about Musk and DOGE. If Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) & Co. roll over, and fail to make any use of the one bit of leverage they have right now, then many Democratic voters are going to be absolutely livid.
In short, this is one of those situations that makes us glad we're not politicians. As was the case yesterday, Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) is a likely "yes" on the bill, about half a dozen Democratic senators are definite "no" votes, and the remaining Democrats (and Angus King) have yet to announce their plans. They are going to have to decide very soon. (Z)