Dem
47
GOP
53
On Sunday, Canada's Liberal Party held an election to choose a replacement for Justin Trudeau, who is stepping down. And the winner, in a rout, was Mark Carney, who took 85.9% of the vote in a four-way race. The victory means that, within days, the new leader of the Liberals will take over as prime minister.
Carney has no experience in elective office, but he has served in prominent public positions, including both as deputy governor and governor of the Bank of Canada, as associate deputy minister of finance, as governor of the Bank of England (the first non-Briton to hold the post) and as the United Nations special envoy on climate action and finance. He's also worked in the private sector, for a couple of prominent investment banks, and has an impressive educational pedigree that includes degrees from Harvard and Oxford.
In short, he's pretty clearly the yin to the yang of Donald Trump. That is to say, one of them is well-educated, has had a very successful career in the world of business and finance, and knows how to negotiate, while the other just pretends to have all those qualities. In addition, Carney is a moderate (by Canadian standards), to the point that he was asked to join Stephen Harper's Conservative government as minister of finance, but declined because he felt it would be inappropriate to go straight from running the Bank of Canada to doing that job. Carney, by virtue of not being in government, is also free of any association with the somewhat radioactive Trudeau. The current PM's previous right-hand woman, Chrystia Freeland, resigned in protest of his policies and then ran in this weekend's election to replace him. She got 8% of the vote. Clearly, Liberal voters want no piece of Trudeau, even a piece that had a high-profile falling out with him.
We are not experts in Canadian politics, of course, but even we can read a scatter chart. And here is what polling of Canadian politics has looked like since the last election:
As you can see, the Liberals were in deep moose doo-doo, until a rapid change in fortunes that began on or about January 20 of this year. Hmmm... hard to guess what happened.
Given the circumstances of his election, Carney thinks he might have a wee bit of a mandate. In a speech acknowledging his victory on Sunday, he decreed:
I am a pragmatist above all. So, when I see that something's that's not working, I will change it. My government will immediately eliminate the divisive consumer carbon tax on families and farmers and small and medium-sized businesses. And we will stop the hike in the capital gains tax because we think builders should be incentivized for taking risks and rewarded when they succeed. Canada needs more of this type of change. Change that puts more money in people's pockets. Change that makes our companies more competitive. Change that builds the strongest economy in the G7.
There's someone who's trying to do the opposite. There's someone who's trying to weaken our economy.
Yeah, Donald Trump.
And Donald Trump has put, as we know [and] as the prime minister just said, unjustified tariffs on what we build, on what we sell, on how we make a living.
He's attacking Canadian families, workers and businesses. And we cannot let him succeed. And we won't. We won't. I am proud of the response of Canadians who are making their voices heard, and their wallets felt...
The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country. Think about it. If they succeeded, they would destroy our way of life. In America, health care is a big business. In Canada, it is a right. America is a melting pot. Canada is a mosaic.
In the U.S., differences are not respected or recognized. First Nations are not recognized. And the French language would never have any rights. The joie de vivre, the culture and the French language are part of our identity. We must fully protect that. We must promote that as well. We will never give them up for any trade agreement.
America is not Canada, and Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form.
We didn't ask for this fight. But Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves. So, the Americans, they should make no mistake. In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.
Under the terms of the Canadian constitution, a general election must be held no later than October 20 of this year, but it can be earlier. Given the Trump bump shown in the chart above, and that enthusiasm for Carney is never likely to be higher than it is right now, the government will surely call for an election much sooner than that, maybe even within the month.
We would be grateful to have the thoughts of Canadian readers; send them to comments@electoral-vote.com. We'll run some of them tomorrow. (Z)