Dem
47
GOP
53
There is no chance of an actual budget getting through Congress this week (with funding running out on Friday). In fact, there is no real chance of an actual budget getting through Congress anytime this fiscal year. And so, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has, predictably, changed tactics, and is going for a continuing resolution (CR) that will keep the lights on for now.
Of course, with the modern-day GOP, nothing can be quite that simple. Or, at very least, quite that honest. In general, a CR implies that the terms of the current budget will simply be extended for [X] number of months. And that is certainly how Johnson is selling it—as an extension of the final Biden budget. Biden, of course, is a Democrat. So, Democrats should be very pleased to extend his budget priorities for another 6 months or so, right?
Not so fast. The CR that Johnson has put forward does not just extend the Biden budget, end of story. It increases funding for defense and for border enforcement, while cutting funding for aid to children and families, healthcare and election security. The CR also contains no funding for disasters, which is a problem because the money already set aside for disasters has been spent, and there is a significant risk that if such funding is not spelled out, the Republican-controlled Congress would find it in themselves to allocate extra money in the future if, say, a bunch of red states get hit by a hurricane, but not if, say, California gets hit by another round of fires.
The biggest problem, from the Democrats' perspective, is that the CR does nothing to rein in Elon Musk, or to specify that he and Donald Trump must spend the money that has been allocated by Congress in the manner that has been indicated. In fact, the CR has some bookkeeping trickery that would give Trump and Musk even more room to move money around as they see fit. In short, the bill is very Republican- and MAGA-friendly, even though it's being presented as an extension of Biden's budget.
Today, the House is scheduled to vote on the CR. As we have noted a thousand times, the GOP has virtually no room for error here. So, Trump is furiously whipping votes on his side of the aisle, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is furiously whipping votes on HIS side. Reportedly, Johnson thinks he has the votes, though he's thought that before and has proven incorrect. Among GOP House members, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) is the only one to have announced he is a hard "no." He regularly bucks his conference on legislation, so he probably means it. Other Republicans are wavering. Among Democratic House members, there are a few who have said they are at least considering a "yes" vote, namely Henry Cuellar (D-TX), Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) and Tom Suozzi (D-NY). In other words, the vote could go either way.
If the CR passes the House, Johnson plans to adjourn until next week, basically giving the Senate two options: (1) approve the CR, or (2) shut the government down. The Republicans can't use reconciliation here, since it's not a new budget. So, the Democrats could filibuster, but then they would be at risk of taking the blame for a shutdown (and, potentially, some of the other economic woes unfolding at the moment; see above). So, if the CR reaches the Senate, the blue team will be in the position of either swallowing a bill that makes them very unhappy (and that is wrapped in the "it's Biden's budget" lie) or potentially owning the shutdown. The Democratic senators are keeping their powder very dry; only John Fetterman (PA) has suggested he's likely to vote for the bill (or to vote to kill a filibuster), while another half-dozen Democratic senators are hard "no" votes, and the other 40 or so members of the caucus have kept their plans to themselves. On the Republican side, only Sen. Rand Paul (KY) is a firm "no."
And so, the American people get to sit back and see what today's episode of As the Capitol Turns brings. When it comes to the question of whether there will be a shutdown, it's a little disturbing that your guess is probably about as good as that of the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives or the Majority Leader of the United States Senate. (Z)