Dem
47
GOP
53
The battle for control of the House will be furious. If Democrats can capture the House, they can block all of Donald Trump's budgets, refuse to pass any new laws that he wants, and make him the first president to have been impeached eight times. Republicans know this, too. The DCCC has now announced the list of "frontline members" whose House seats they will vigorously defend in 2026 by spending money there. Here is the list of vulnerable incumbent Democrats:
| Incumbent | District | PVI | New? | 2024 Margin | Notes on the district |
| Adam Gray | CA-13 | D+4 | Yes | 0.1% | Majority Latino district in the Central Valley from Tracy to Fresno |
| Derek Tran | CA-45 | D+2 | Yes | 0.2% | Wealthy district running from Yorba Linda to Huntington Beach |
| Jared Golden | ME-02 | R+6 | No | 0.5% | Nearly all-white very large rural district covering 92% of Maine |
| Marcy Kaptur | OH-09 | R+3 | No | 0.7% | "Snake by the Lake" south of Lake Erie running west to Indiana |
| Don Davis | NC-01 | D+2 | No | 1.7% | Urban district running south from Virginia to almost the Research Triangle |
| Josh Riley | NY-19 | EVEN | Yes | 2.2% | White suburban district covering mid-Hudson Valley and west to Ithaca |
| Emilia Sykes | OH-13 | R+1 | No | 2.2% | Mostly white district covering Stark and Summit Counties around Akron |
| Laura Gillen | NY- 04 | D+5 | Yes | 2.3% | Very wealthy, urban, white and Latino district on western Long Island |
| Vicente Gonzalez | TX-34 | D+9 | No | 2.6% | Poor urban Latino district on the Gulf of Mexico south of Corpus Christi |
| George Whitesides | CA-27 | D+4 | Yes | 2.6% | Wealthy white and Latino district in northern L.A. County and eastward |
| Eugene Vindman | VA-07 | D+1 | Yes | 2.7% | Wealthy white, Black, and Latino district between D.C. and Richmond |
| Janelle Bynum | OR-05 | D+2 | Yes | 2.7% | White, urban district including a bit of Portland and southeast to Bend |
| Susie Lee | NV-03 | D+1 | No | 2.8% | White, Asian, Latino district from south Las Vegas to Bullhead City |
| Dave Min | CA-47 | D+3 | Yes | 2.8% | Wealthy white and Asian district from Long Beach to Orange County |
| Josh Harder | CA-09 | D+5 | No | 3.6% | Latino and white district in the northern Central Valley |
| Tom Suozzi | NY-03 | D+2 | No | 3.6% | Very, very wealthy urban, white and Asian district on northwest Long Island |
| Marie Perez | WA-03 | R+5 | No | 3.8% | Predominantly white district in southwestern corner of Washington |
| Gabe Vasquez | NM-02 | D+1 | No | 4.2% | Urban Latino and white district running from Albuquerque to Mexico |
| Nellie Pou | NJ-09 | D+8 | Yes | 4.9% | Urban, well-off district from Fort Lee running northwest for 20 miles |
| Henry Cuellar | TX-28 | D+3 | No | 5.6% | Heavily Latino district running southwest from San Antonio to Mexico |
| Kristen Rivet | MI-08 | R+1 | Yes | 6.7% | Mostly white county running northwest from Flint to Bay City and north |
| Jahana Hayes | CT-05 | D+3 | No | 6.8% | White and Latino urban district in northwestern Connecticut |
| Dina Titus | NV-01 | D+3 | No | 7.5% | White and Latino urban district with eastern Las Vegas and going south |
| Steven Horsford | NV-04 | D+3 | No | 8.0% | White and Latino district from northern Las Vegas halfway up the state |
| Frank Mrvan | IN-01 | D+3 | No | 8.5% | Gary, IN, and its eastern suburbs, close to Chicago |
| John Mannion | NY-22 | D+1 | Yes | 9.1% | Mostly white, mixed urban and rural district between Syracuse and Utica |
DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA) picked these people because she believes they are in danger. That could be due to a very small margin of victory in 2024, being in a district with a PVI close to EVEN, or some special circumstance specific to that member. Newly elected members (the column labeled "New") are always extra vulnerable since they are not as well known as someone who has been sitting in the seat for 10 years. Nineteen of the above members won by less than 5 points. Democratic turnout has historically been poor in midterms, so all of these could be in danger, unless there is a blue wave. The other seven are in closely divided districts with PVIs from R+1 to D+3. It should be noted that we are using the "old" PVIs, based on the 2020 and 2016 elections, as the new ones have not been released yet. New members who are in a district close to EVEN and who barely won are the most vulnerable, of course. Rep. Derek Tran (D-CA), Josh Riley (D-NY), Eugene Vindman (D-VA) and Janelle Bynum (D-OR) are especially vulnerable and will get extra money to help out.
In some cases, you have to look carefully to see why someone made the list. For example, John Mannion (D-NY) won by 9.1 points, so why is he considered endangered? The reason is that the district is only D+1. He won by such a large margin because he faced an exceptionally weak opponent in 2024. That might not happen in 2026.
The House will be bitterly fought over in 2026, with the Democrats needing to net only three seats to take over the chamber. But the first order of business for any party is to defend its own incumbents who are in iffy districts. That is what this list is all about. There will probably be a new list later giving the primary offensive targets—that is, which Republicans they are gunning for. Publishing the list doesn't tell the NRCC anything it can't find out trivially itself (PVIs and election results) but it encourages Democrats in these districts to donate to the candidates on the list as endangered. The NRCC will probably publish its own list soon, as well. (V)