Dem
47
GOP
53
Here is the question we put before readers two weeks ago:
D.E. in Lancaster, PA, asks: Since it seems Trump v2.0 is just Trump v1.0 with a new label, which Cabinet or Cabinet-level officers do you think will resign or be forced to resign first, and why? Elon doesn't count.
And here some of the answers we got in response:
J.D. in Greensboro, NC: My guess would be Marco Rubio. As a senator from a solid-red state he has never been challenged as much as he will be on the international stage and it will begin to show soon. Plus, he is the perfect person for Trump to throw under the bus—he ran against Trump at one time and is not sufficiently MAGA for Trump's taste. It is conceivable that Trump will blame him for not being able to bring Europe and Ukraine to heel to satisfy Vladimir Putin. And we all know that Putin's goals are also Trump's. Rubio can run again in Florida for the Senate, so a resignation is not exactly the end of his political career.
H.B. in Toronto, ON, Canada: Marco Rubio. He seems to have that Rex Tillerson flavor, being a milquetoast Republican who's only in his position because Trump needed someone respectable in the Cabinet... with Trump caring considerably less about that this time around...
J.E. in San Jose, CA: Mario Rubio is the only one I think who will resign. I still don't understand why he took the job. He had to have known he would have no power, right? It would be the least disruptive resignation and the most likely to happen soonest based on the "negotiations" going on between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine.
Biden's and Trump 47's cabinets may share the odd commonality of sticking together the longest among the administrations. What incentives do other members of the current Cabinet have to resign? They're protected from scandal and they aren't qualified to do anything else!
E.W. in Skaneateles, NY: When I read your question, SoSINO Marco Rubio immediately leapt to mind. As you've pointed out already, he's almost powerless, and yet he regularly manages to contradict his Dear Leader. And let's not forget that he famously mocked Trump's manhood during a rally. I doubt Trump has forgotten that.
Despite this, Trump might find Rubio's contradictions useful to muddy the waters and distract the public—one of Trump's major MOs (and my personal take on his flip-flopping on tariffs). As for the past mockery, Trump clearly relishes "owning" his past detractors (see, Vance, J.D.).
However, once Trump has a significant foreign policy setback (which is inevitable) and needs a fall guy, Rubio is right there.
R.M. in Pensacola, FL: My best guess is DHS Secretary Kristi Noem will be the first one out the door. All that Co-President Donald Trump cares about is having large numbers of undocumented immigrants being deported, and it's been widely reported that the number of people being deported is well behind the pace of Joe Biden's final year in office. At some point, that's going to send Trump into a rage, so eventually the problem will land at Noem's feet.
At that point, she will have a few choices. She can continue going after three cooks at a small restaurant in a town that nobody has heard of, or she can start going where everyone knows the undocumented immigrants happen to be. Right now, tens of thousands are in the fields in Florida as peak harvest season rolls on for another month or so, before shifting to other parts of the country, as we get deeper into spring and summer. There are also all of the slaughterhouses all across the country at which the labor forces are substantially undocumented.
Noem will have to choose which path she goes down and neither will work. She can't get the numbers she needs if she goes after a few here and there and if she goes after the agricultural workers in large numbers, it will piss off the Republican donor base. She is in a no-win situation and I can't see her lasting through the end of the year.
A.G. in Scranton, PA: In my opinion it's DNI Tulsi Gabbard, hands down, for the following reasons: (1) She is a woman (translation to MAGA-ese: "some bi**h", "a broad", "that dumb cu**"). That's a big problem; (2) She is as big an attention whore as the Dear Leader. That's a big problem; (3) She sometimes bucks authority, refuses to toe the line. Broads should always do what they're told in MAGAland. That she won't is a problem; (4) She's not blonde. MAGA-males are all told from a young age that blondes are dumb... maybe even dumb enough to throw them a little sumthin-sumthin now and again. She's not blonde, ergo she might be smart, ergo no pity sex for males with douchebag, lifted trucks with gun-not-about-penis-size stickers everywhere.
E.S. in Providence, RI: The first time there is an international gaffe affecting national security that angers GOP Congress critters (which can't come soon enough), Trump will blame Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (whether it's his fault or not) and fire him.
V.F. in Richmond, CA: I assume Pete Hegseth will be fired after a massive confrontation with China or one of our allies (Panama, Greenland, etc) that goes sideways. He will take the fall.
Or, if there's another pandemic, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be given the under-the-bus treatment for helping the virus.
Or, if another 9/11 style terrorist attack, Tulsi Gabbard for being feckless.
D.D. in Carversville, PA: RFK Jr. is the most likely person to do something or say something that even this administration can't spin away or can't understand. Trump hates to be embarrassed. Should an outbreak of [insert infectious disease] affect some part of the population, without stable leadership at HHS, there will be lots of patients, and impatience will turn into no patience.
C.S. in Santa Cruz, CA: RFK Jr., of course! He's an embarrassment and was only chosen to stick it to the libs. And, we know TCF does not like disabled people. Every time RFK speaks, he appears flawed, due to his vocal condition and Trump will want to get rid of him as soon as he can.
B.C. in Walpole, ME: First will be Marco Rubio. He has what it takes to be the first to resign: Ideas of his own, ambition coupled with poor work ethic, the knowledge that Trump is doing the wrong thing nearly every time. Plus, he will eventually figure out that he has no respect inside the White House, and that Stephen Miller and others have far more input on foreign policy than he does.
Second will be Pete Hegseth: Most likely to do something so embarrassing to the Pentagon/Armed Forces/White House/American people that he is forced to resign.
Third will be Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent: He might actually be tempted to stand in Trump's way at some point, and then he's gone.
Trump doesn't really care about the rest or even know what they do; they are just props at his photo-op "Cabinet meetings."
Wild Card: OMB Director Russell Vought: He has very definite ideas of his own and would really like to have a role parallel to Elon Musk's current role. He could end up clashing with Trump.
Wild Card #2: Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum because he just gets bored.
S.K. in Bethesda, MD: I would be happy to be wrong about this, but I'm not sure we're going to see the same kind of turnover in Trump v2.0 as we did the first time around. A large portion of the firings and resignations last time came from either scandals or disagreements with Trump. Scandals do not seem likely to be a fireable offense anymore—in fact, they are just as likely to IMPROVE job security. And it's hard to imagine many of this group—selected almost entirely for loyalty—ever taking a position different than the boss. The one exception might be Scott Bessent at Treasury, but given the very high likelihood of economic volatility, I think Bessent, who is trusted by the markets, will get a long leash. That leaves Marco Rubio, who is going to be in a more difficult spot than anyone other than Bessent, and won't have Wall Street to protect him. But I'm expecting far less turnover this time around.
Here is the question for next week:
P.W. in Springwater, NY, asks: I just returned from vacation in Churchill, Manitoba, and while it seemed that most Canadians do not blame the American people—at least those of us who didn't vote for TCF—they really didn't understand how he could have been elected... again. So, here's my question: What is the most appropriate and effective way to show Canada and/or Ukraine that I'm on their sides?
Submit your answers to comments@electoral-vote.com, preferably with subject line "We Are the World"!
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