Dem
47
GOP
53
Anti-abortion Republicans sense that this is their moment. They think there is so much going on that they can get abortion measures through Congress and signed into law with no one noticing, given all the other stuff going on. They also noticed that despite massive Democratic attention to abortion during the 2024 campaign, it kind of fizzled and really wasn't the killer issue the Democrats hoped for.
As a consequence, Republicans are not afraid to talk about anti-abortion bills openly and loudly. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) said: "The gloves are off." Rep, Mike Kelly (R-PA) said: "They [the Democrats] think that's an issue and it's like, you guys don't get it, you know, people don't listen to you anymore."
Abortion opponents are going to start with the low-hanging fruit and work their way up. Last week, House Republicans passed a bill requiring that infants who survived a botched abortion are entitled to full medical care. This is just grandstanding because current law already requires this. All this bill does is increase the penalties for noncompliance. It also specifically penalizes killing a child born alive. That is called homicide (infanticide) and is already a felony in every state.
Some Republicans want to introduce a "reasonable" bill that bans abortion after 24 weeks of pregnancy. That could probably pass the House. If it does, then next year they pass a bill that changes the "24" to "23." Will anyone even notice? Rinse and repeat. Of course, the Senate is a problem, but maybe Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) could be persuaded to pursue an abortion carve-out on the filibuster. There aren't 60 votes for the anti-choice bills, but there may be 50, plus J.D. Vance's tiebreaker.
There are a few House Republicans from battleground districts who were heavily targeted on abortion and won anyway. These include Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), and Derrick Van Orden (R-WI). They are no longer afraid of the big bad abortion boogeyman. In the past, they might be counted on to torpedo anti-abortion bills, but no longer. (V)