Dem
47
GOP
53
2026 will be a big gubernatorial year, with 36 contests, 15 of them open seats due to term limits. Pro-Trump Republican firebrands think this could be their year, and a number of them are about to announce their gubernatorial runs. Those running in deep-red states need only clear the primary, but some of the others are running in states that do elect Democrats from time to time and where "candidate quality" could be an issue. Also, midterms tend to be bad for the president's party, so it might not be a great year for Republican extremists. But, hope springs eternal.
As a general rule, while firebrands can get elected to the Senate, that doesn't usually work as well for governors. Senators can get away with merely bloviating and not getting anything actually done (see: Cruz, Sen. Ted). Governors actually have to get stuff done, not just make speeches. Most governors, even in deep-blue and deep-red states, are largely focused on managing their state well, not grandstanding. Thus it will be challenging for real firebrands to convince people that they are actually capable of the boring work of governing their state. It happens occasionally, as in Florida, but that is the exception rather than the rule.
Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) and former Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida are both preparing to run for governor of Florida to succeed the term-limited Ron DeSantis. That could be quite a battle, with each one trying to outflank the other on the right. Imagine one saying "I oppose all abortions after 6 weeks" and then the other saying "Big deal. I oppose all abortions after 5 weeks!" The problem with a Donalds-Gaetz anti-abortathon is that it could move both of them so far to the right that moderate Republican voters might go for the Democrat—assuming the blue team can find one.
Ohio could be a real dilly, if former DOGEy Vivek Ramaswamy jumps in this week, as expected. He has a ton of money and could flood the airwaves. He might even get Donald Trump's endorsement, despite (or maybe on account of) being a truly obnoxious and arrogant person. If all that happened, Ramaswamy might just be able to beat AG Dave Yost (R), who is already in, and SoS Frank LaRose (R), who would love to be governor, and maybe a few others in the primary. If Ramaswamy got the nomination, the right Democrat could possibly win this. Democrats are hoping that Sherrod Brown does not jump in. They want him to challenge appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) in the 2026 special election because Husted is not that well known and appointed senators don't have a good track record. Brown is the best-known Democrat in Ohio and winning a Senate seat is far more important than winning a governor's mansion.
In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) said she is seriously considering running for governor. She knows that South Carolinians are willing to elect a woman as governor. They elected Nikki Haley twice, after all. Mace is a real firebrand, which is a bit unusual for a woman, but she was the one who introduced a measure banning transgender women from using the women's restroom in the Capitol, knowing that one of the members of the House, Rep. Sarah McBride (D-DE), is a transgender woman. Nothing like picking on one of your colleagues to get attention. Mace may decide to go for governor instead of for a fourth term because her Charleston-area district is R+7, and in a blue wave, she could drown.
Finally, we get to a state that, unlike the above three races, is not an open seat. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) has already jumped in to challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ). Biggs was once an LDS missionary to Japan (good luck with that) who later entered a sweepstakes and won $10 million. This allowed him to retire and decide to run for Congress. Once there, he joined the Freedom Caucus and later become chairman of it. He is about as firebrandy as they come, and running against a sitting governor in a purple state in what might be a good year for the Democrats could be tough on account of that nasty old "candidate quality" problem.
As an aside, we update our governor's page whenever we see relevant news, so check it from time to time. It is on the menu to the left of the map. (V)