Dem
47
GOP
53
Actually, it's easier to tell you who the next mayor of New York won't be, namely Eric Adams. We hardly have our finger on the pulse of New York City politics, as neither of us lives within 2,500 miles of that metropolis. But we do know what a crooked politician looks like. We could not imagine that New Yorkers, even with their above-average tolerance for shenanigans, could possibly return Adams to the mayoralty in this year's elections.
A new poll, commissioned by Progressives for Democracy in America, and first reported by Politico, affirms our suspicions. Adams' support among New York City voters is a grim 6%. That puts him in a tie for fifth place. The poll also simulated what would happen in a ranked-choice election, and the result was Adams being eliminated in the fourth round of re-ranking.
So, who is the favorite? Well, the runaway leader in the poll is... former governor Andrew Cuomo, who had the support of 32% of respondents (the only other person in double figures was former city comptroller Scott Stringer, at 10%). This should not be taken seriously, at least not right now, for three reasons. Most importantly, most voters aren't really dialed in yet, and so undoubtedly Cuomo was the only name many of them recognized. Also important, Cuomo is not actually a candidate, at least not yet. And less important, but still worth noting, is that the poll was actually conducted before Christmas, and so is at least a little stale.
Cuomo's showing is, in our view, important for one reason: It makes clear that while the poll might have been commissioned by Progressives for Democracy in America, it did not have a bias in favor of progressive candidates, because Cuomo is most certainly not a progressive. That makes it rather hard for the centrist Adams to dismiss, even though he's trying to do so. His argument is that Andrew Yang had a big lead in polls last time around, and yet did not become mayor. This is a fair point, but it's an argument for why you shouldn't put your money on Cuomo right yet. It's not an argument for why it's not a big deal when a sitting mayor, who presumably has universal name recognition, is only polling at 6%.
So, we assume that, barring a dramatic change in fortunes, Adams' goose is cooked. Of course, we are happy to hear from New York City voters at comments@electoral-vote.com, who may confirm our suspicions, or who may tell us why we're out to lunch. (Z)