Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday, the first volume of former special counsel Jack Smith's report on Donald Trump's (alleged) criminal activities was released to the members of Congress, and then to the general public.
The release was made possible because Judge Aileen Cannon has had some level of awakening about what powers she does, and does not, have. By the letter of the law, she has no authority here whatsoever, having washed her hands of the whole matter when she declared Smith's appointment to be unconstitutional and his classified documents case to be null and void. Despite that, last week, Cannon asserted the right to block the release of both volumes of the report. Perhaps she has had time to reflect, or maybe a more senior judge sat her down for a nice chat, but in any case, she is now blocking only the second volume of the report, which covers the classified documents case. The first volume, the one released yesterday, is on the 1/6 insurrection, a case that never crossed Cannon's docket.
The now-released document is 174 pages, which is actually on the short side given how much ground it covers, as well as lawyers' tendency to be just a wee bit verbose. The charges and evidence against Trump are summarized, of course, although that's only about half of the document. The other half discusses what made this investigation particularly difficult to pursue, and this set of crimes particularly difficult to prosecute. Smith's overall conclusion is that "but for Mr. Trump's election and imminent return to the presidency, the office assessed that the admissible evidence was sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction at trial." In other words, being elected president is quite literally a Get Out of Jail Free card, at least for the guy who's going to be re-inaugurated next week.
The fate of the second volume of Smith's report remains up in the air. Cannon has taken the position that the matter is still under her jurisdiction, and has a hearing scheduled for Friday, at which lawyers for Trump's co-defendants (who are NOT being let off the hook, unlike the President-elect) and for the government, will plead their cases. Who knows what Cannon will do, or how quickly she will do it? It's worth noting that even if you think she's in the bag for Trump (and there's a very good chance she is), she has already failed him by allowing the first volume of the report to be released. So, the "Appellate Justice Cannon" or "Supreme Court Justice Cannon" ship might already have sailed.
At some point, not too long from now, responsibility for the second volume of the report will pass into the hands of people appointed to their offices by Donald Trump. It won't happen right on January 20, but it will happen soon thereafter. So, if Cannon does anything on Friday other than say "I am dropping all obstacles to releasing the report," it might remain buried for a while, or maybe forever. That said, it's a leaky world, so even if official channels for release are shut down, it would not be too surprising for the report to find its way to the public through unofficial channels.
Truth be told—and we realize this is contrary to his very nature—but the smart move for Trump would be to get both volumes out there right now. First, there are already a bunch of "Smith says he would have convicted Trump" stories at the moment, and the number of stories isn't going to change if there's one volume released, or two. Might as well pull off the band-aid all at once, and get it over with. And now is a particularly good time, since Trump's approval is as high as it's been in years, and any news from this week's cycle will soon be pushed out of the headlines by the inauguration, etc.
By contrast, if Trump and his loyal acolytes (e.g., Cannon) drag this thing out, then you run into the drip-drip-drip problem, wherein any small development becomes the basis for yet another news cycle focused on Trump and his criminal deeds. And then, if and when the thing does become public—in a month, or 6 months, or a year—it will produce a whole week of stories about how Trump is a crook, and how he is more than willing to abuse his powers for selfish/trivial reasons. Plus, it will give us the opportunity to run the headline: "Smith: Convicted-Felon Trump Would Have Been Thrice-Convicted-Felon Trump."
It's really kind of remarkable that Trump, as obsessed with PR as he is, and as good at getting free publicity as he is, has never mastered even the most rudimentary elements of damage control. (Z)