Dem
47
GOP
53
Republicans currently have a 219-215 edge in the House, soon to be reduced to 217-215 when Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL) resign to take jobs in the Trump administration, and then likely expanded to 220-215 after special elections fill the vacancies around April. But with such a close House, there will be hand-to-hand combat for a number of House seats in 2026. We already have an idea of which ones they might be based on the 2024 results and districts where the incumbent is in a district where the PVI favors the other party.
In 20 of the last 22 House midterm elections, going back to 1938, the president's party has lost seats in the House, often dramatically. The two exceptions were 1998, when the Republicans were busy impeaching Bill Clinton and 2002, when George W. Bush rallied the country after the Sept. 11 attacks. Here are the data. The color of the bar showing the loss (or gain) indicates which party the president was. It is a bipartisan kind of thing.
The mean loss for the president's party is 28.5 House seats. The median loss is 29.5. As they say, past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but with a cabinet full of wackos and a president prone to chaos, Democrats have to like their chances. They know that in the 2018 midterms, during Trump v1.0, the Republicans lost 42 seats in the House. However, the president's party doesn't always lose seats in the Senate in the midterms. It depends on which class of senators is up and the dynamics of individual races. Also working for the Democrats is the DCCC chair, Suzan DelBene (D-WA), who has held the job before and knows the ropes quite well.
Here is an initial list of the hottest 2026 House races.
| District | Current incumbent | Party | 2024 Margin |
| CA-13 | Adam Gray | Dem | 0.1% |
| CA-45 | Derek Tran | Dem | 0.2% |
| IA-01 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | GOP | 0.2% |
| ME-02 | Jared Golden | Dem | 0.5% |
| CO-08 | Gabe Evans | GOP | 0.8% |
| PA-07 | Ryan Mackenzie | GOP | 1.0% |
| PA-10 | Scott Perry | GOP | 1.2% |
| PA-08 | Rob Bresnahan | GOP | 1.6% |
| NC-01 | Don Davis | Dem | 1.7% |
| AK-AL | Nick Begich | GOP | 1.8% |
| NY-19 | Josh Riley | Dem | 2.2% |
| AZ-06 | Juan Ciscomani | GOP | 2.5% |
| CA-27 | George Whitesides | Dem | 2.6% |
| VA-07 | Eugene Vindman | Dem | 2.6% |
| OR-05 | Janelle Bynum | Dem | 2.7% |
| CA-41 | Ken Calvert | GOP | 3.4% |
| AZ-01 | David Schweikert | GOP | 3.8% |
| IA-03 | Zach Nunn | GOP | 3.8% |
| WA-03 | Marie Perez | Dem | 3.8% |
| NM-02 | Gabriel Vasquez | Dem | 4.2% |
As you can see, 10 of the closest 20 were won by Democrats and 10 were won by Republicans, so both parties will have to play offense and defense. However in the closest 10, 4 are Democrats and 6 are Republicans, giving the blue team a bit of an edge, especially if there is a blue wave (or blue ripple), as history predicts. (V)