Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump promised mass deportation. In 11 days, he is going to have to start delivering. Some Republicans are worried that his actions could split the Republican caucus in the House.
What some Republicans are thinking about is what happens when photos and videos of hysterically sobbing children in cages and separated from their parents hit the media. If the children are U.S. citizens, they cannot be deported, even though their parents can be. Just wait for interviews with parents who are faced with the choice of taking their 10-year-old who doesn't speak Spanish to Guatemala, a country the child has never been to and may know nothing about, or letting their U.S. citizen child be put up for adoption. It won't be pretty. The PR could be horrific and it could cause independent voters to reach conclusions about how heartless the Republicans are. The base will be overjoyed, but there aren't enough base voters to win elections. A huge amount depends on how the deportations are handled.
Trump has said he will focus on hardened criminals. The problem is that there aren't very many of them. Maybe he could round up a few hundred in local jails, but the base wants Operation Wetback, Part II. They want millions of people deported, not hundreds. That's where the problem comes in. Some high-profile Republicans, like Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), also want that and will fight for it. His TX-21 district is R+13. He's safe no matter what, but plenty of other Republicans are not safe. How will they vote for funding and new laws? Will they even peep? And what about the H-1B visa immigrants? They are legal, but the government could end the H-1B program. Will it? Probably only over Co-President Elon Musk's dead body. But if it continues, people like Roy, Steve Bannon, and Laura Loomer are going to peep.
Once the criminals are all deported (or put in small boats 10 miles off the Mexican coast), what's next? How can large numbers of immigrants be found? It is known that many work at meat packing plants and in agriculture. Large numbers can be rounded up there, even though a dragnet will catch some American citizens as well, which will be bad PR. But if even tens of thousands of workers in meat packing plants are deported somehow, they won't be replaced. Nobody else will do that work. The plants will close and meat prices will go up. Democrats will point this out. The people who voted for Trump because he was going to lower grocery prices will notice.
Another little detail nobody is talking about: Where are the deportees going to go? Mexico doesn't want them. What if Mexican immigration officials at the border want to see passports and evidence, like return tickets, that the folks in the bus are just tourists? Suppose they refuse to let the buses through? Will Trump use the Army to invade Mexico? He can hardly foresee the consequences of that. Suppose the Mexican Army starts shooting back? Then what? It's been a long time since the U.S. Navy had to deal with hostilities in the Gulf of America.
Trump dug himself a hole by talking about deportations. If he had merely talked about sealing the border, that would not have resulted in heart-wrenching photos and videos. Building a wall is tough (and getting Mexico to pay for it is impossible), but some deterrents are easy. In many places the Rio Grande is so shallow that people can just walk across it. The Army Corps of Engineers could dredge it to a depth of 8 feet fairly easily. Floating barriers like those Texas used could deter most boats. Razor wire at the shore would stop most of those people who breached the barriers. Surveillance drones could show the Border Patrol where to go. None of that is difficult or even expensive. But Trump promised mass deportations and now he is going to have to deliver or look like a big bag of hot air. (V)