Dem
47
GOP
53
Another one bites the dust. There is increasing instability in the world and democracies are having a tough time. The U.K. recently dumped Rishi Sunak, France and Germany are in turmoil, the prime minister of South Korea was impeached, Donald Trump eked out a small win and had no coattails, and now Trudeau is throwing in the towel. The peasants have grabbed their pitchforks and no leaders are safe. People want the government to solve their problems, but they are so divided on the solution that many democratic countries are paralyzed. Dictatorships have it easier. The people just have to hope for a dictator who has the country's best interests at heart (like Xi Jinping) and not one who doesn't (like Vladimir Putin).
Trudeau will stay on as a caretaker leader, and thus caretaker PM, until his party can pick a replacement in a nationwide process that could take a month or two. That will be followed sometime this year by a parliamentary election, with the Liberals' main opponent being the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre.
Trudeau had a long run as prime minister (9 years) but the people have had enough of him. There will be an election in or before October, and Trudeau's party is polling at 16%. That makes Joe Biden's polling look fantastic. Rather than being beaten badly, Trudeau decided to take one for the team and let his party pick a new leader who will hopefully do better.
Donald Trump's promised tariffs on imports from Canada probably didn't help Trudeau much, though whoever succeeds him will still have to deal with the tariffs, which will have a strong negative effect on the Canadian economy. And Trudeau's problems are much deeper than Trump's plans. Trudeau's former minister of finance and deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland, quit the Cabinet last month and the minister of housing, Sean Fraser, is about to quit. The wheels are coming off the bus.
When the general election campaign begins, it is likely that Poilievre will make a point of saying that since he is conservative, Trump will like him better than he likes Trudeau. The implication here is that Poilievre will have more influence with Trump than Trudeau did. Whether that is actually true remains to be seen, though. But as a campaign theme, it could help.
But before the general election happens, the Liberal Party has to pick a new leader, who will automatically become prime minister. Here are four of the leading candidates. Former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland is clearly interested in the job. She was formerly a journalist (including a stint in Ukraine) and is married to a reporter for The New York Times. Mélanie Joly is another potential PM She is minister of foreign affairs. She is a lawyer from Quebec (hence the little doodad in her first name). She was elected to parliament in 2015 and has held multiple cabinet jobs. Mark Carney is the former governor of the Bank of Canada and also the Bank of England. He also worked for Bloomberg, Inc. and Goldman Sachs. He knows a lot about money. Despite being from Alberta, he went to Harvard. Dominic LeBlanc is Trudeau's long-time friend and former babysitter when he was a kid. He replaced Freeland when she quit the cabinet as minister of finance. He has held cabinet jobs since 2015. The choice will be made by members of the Liberal Party. Canada had a female prime minster, Kim Campbell, from June 1993 to Nov. 1993 so if either of the women win, she won't be covered in broken glass from a shattered glass ceiling. (V)