Dem
47
GOP
53
The Senate Democrats have elected Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) to run the DSCC this cycle. It is a tricky assignment and can either help her future or hurt it, depending on how it goes. The 2026 Senate election will be easier than the 2024 one, but not easy. There is only one Democrat in danger instead of three and there are two or three potential pickups, none of which will be easy. Gillibrand made it clear that she wanted the assignment. It was not foisted upon her. Also, she always has the idea of being the first woman president in the back of her mind, and a successful Senate cycle would give her credibility within the party. Together, the two New York senators will have a lot of power, as Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will be minority leader.
The job of the DSCC chair is twofold. First, she has to raise gobs of money, as Senate races are expensive. Second, for elections where there is no incumbent Democrat running, she has to recruit candidates. The NRSC did a decent job in 2024, finding now-Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-MT) and now-Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA), even though neither one really lived in the state they won. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) was easier, since he really is from Ohio. All of them won. Some of the other picks, such as Eric Hovde in Wisconsin and Sam Brown in Nevada, fell flat. Then there was Kari Lake in Arizona, but the NRSC most definitely did not pick her; it just couldn't stop her.
The race that will be keeping Gillibrand up at night is Georgia, where Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is up for reelection. He barely won in 2020 and had a couple of advantages then that he won't have in 2026. First, it was a presidential year with high turnout and, at least historically, high turnout has helped the Democrats. Second, now-Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) was also on the ballot in a special election against appointed senator Kelly Loeffler, which greatly increased turnout among Black voters. Now Ossoff is on his own and will need every penny Gillibrand can scrounge up. She knows this very well. If term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) jumps in, Ossoff will have a real battle on his hands. Gillibrand and Ossoff have to hope and pray that he doesn't. The good news for them is that it is not a sure thing that Kemp will jump in, as his real goal is the GOP nomination in 2028 and he might want to spend 2026 preparing for a presidential run.
The only other Democratic seats that could be a problem are Michigan and New Hampshire. Michigan is a swing state that Donald Trump won and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) is up for reelection there. One thing working for him is that in 2024, the state's significant Arab-American population, which normally votes Democratic, voted for Donald Trump because they didn't like Joe Biden's Gaza policy. They are very likely to be even less enthusiastic about Trump's Gaza policies and may come home to the Democratic Party in 2026.
New Hampshire is a bluish swing state but Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is well-liked there. She was elected governor in 1996, 1998, and 2000. She ran for the Senate in 2002 and lost to John E. Sununu (son of former governor John H. Sununu). In 2008, she again ran against Sununu and this time beat him handily. In 2014 she narrowly beat Scott Brown and in 2020 she trounced Corky Messner. That's 6-1 on statewide races. Her potential problem is that Sununu's brother, Chris Sununu, the former four-term governor, could run against her. That could be a real barnburner. If Sununu doesn't run (because he is also interested in running for president in 2028), she will win easily. The other Democrats running for reelection have it easy.
That's defense, now offense. There are potential pickups in Maine, represented by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), and North Carolina, represented by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). In both cases the Democrat is obvious, assuming that person jumps in. In Maine it is term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) and in North Carolina it is former governor Roy Cooper. However, Cooper also has presidential ambitions.
A third potential pickup is Kentucky, of all places. If Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) retires, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) might jump in, although he also has presidential ambitions and sees himself as the new Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton—a moderate Democrat who can win in the South. McConnell will turn 85 a month after being sworn in if he runs and wins. He has had health issues, so most observers expect him to crawl off to the old turtles' home, leaving an opening for Beshear.
With only four or five competitive Senate races, and maybe fewer if the various governors skip 2026, Gillibrand won't need to raise as much money as in some cycles, but neither will the NRSC. It could be a relatively cheap year. Still, if the Democrats pick up a couple seats net, Gillibrand will get some of the credit, at least within the Senate leadership. That could come in handy in due course of time. (V)