Dem
47
GOP
53
There can technically be up to three reconciliation bills each year (one for revenue, one for spending, one for the debt limit). But the reconciliation process still requires every item in each bill to be about the budget, even if each one funds a different part of the government. Things that are not budget related have to go through the regular order, which means they can be filibustered in the Senate.
Could the Republicans abolish the filibuster so they can ram bills through with their 53 votes? Yes, if they decide to do so. It is just a Senate rule and the majority can change the rules. But in his first speech as Majority Leader, John Thune (R-SD) said he will not abolish the filibuster because he believes it preserves the founders' vision for the country, which did not include radical changes to the laws each time a different group of senators had a small majority in the Senate.
Donald Trump is not going to like it if all of his plans that are not part of the budget go down in death by filibuster. He is going to ask—no, make that demand—that Thune abolish the filibuster. Thune is largely an institutionalist and is going to resist. It could be quite a battle. Thune is well aware that during the first half of the Biden administration, many Democrats wanted to abolish the filibuster, but then-senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema refused to play ball. So when the Democrats could have done it and didn't, the institutionalist in him wants to play by the same rules. He also well knows that some day, possibly even in 2026 if there is a blue wave, the Democrats may have a small majority in the Senate, and if he gets rid of the rule and the Democrats manage to get 51 seats, they are not going to bring the rule back. Trump doesn't care about that, but Thune does.
If the filibuster stays intact, to pass legislation other than budgetary items will require Democratic support. There won't be any such support on any of the hot-button issues that get Trump's base really excited. The kinds of things that could actually pass are nonideological, like infrastructure, helping veterans, and creating more manufacturing jobs in America. But these are things Trump is not interested in. It will be interesting to see if Thune can stand up to Trump's pressure. (V)