Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump has told newly reinstalled speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) that he wants one big massive bill that cuts taxes, handles the border and energy, and does more, in one fell swoop. He wants a HUGE major victory early in his term. Trump is not known as a legislative tactician and may learn the hard way that this is a bold move and it might not go well.
After Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Michael Waltz (R-FL) resign from the House to take jobs in the administration, there will be 217 Republicans and 215 Democrats. That means that even one defection will lead to defeat until the empty seats (including that of Matt Gaetz) can be filled by special elections, probably in April. The Big Bill will have lots of new spending in it, for a beefed up Border Patrol, a large deportation force, more drilling, and other things. Furthermore, there will be less revenue on account of the tax cuts. This is a formula for greatly increasing the federal deficit. It is also a formula for getting at least one deficit hawk to vote "no" on the bill. Additionally, some of the Republicans from New York and California are going to demand that the limit on the SALT deduction be raised. Putting together a bill that every single Republican can live with will test Johnson's abilities to the hilt.
Also a factor is that Trump made many expensive promises during the campaign. One that may come back to haunt him is exempting tip income from federal income tax. There are a lot of people who depend on tips and some of them may have voted for him specifically for this. If he doesn't deliver, because it is expensive and makes the deficit problem bigger, they will definitely notice. They could express their feelings at the ballot box in 2026 (and beyond).
One way to manage the deficit is to cheat. Current law has many of the 2017 tax cuts expiring soon. Some Republicans don't want to increase the deficit. But how do you measure that? One way is to compare the 2025 deficit to the 2024 deficit. But another way is to compare the 2025 deficit to what it would have been if the new tax law were not passed. Using fuzzy accounting, it is possible to pass a tax cut and not have that count as less revenue for the government even though absent the tax bill the government would have taken in more money due to the expiration of the tax cuts. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID) wants to act like extending the tax cuts is not a tax cut, even though it will result in the government getting less revenue than if Congress had done nothing. Other members of Congress want to use "dynamic scoring," which assumes somehow that lower taxes will generate more economic activity and thus generate more revenue so they can even pay for themselves. All past experience shows that this is nonsense and cutting taxes decreases government revenue. It does not increase it. Deficit hawks understand all this gimmickry and many object to it. And all it will take is one defection to sink the bill.
Another problem is Republicans want to use the budget reconciliation procedure to get the bill through the Senate. But that procedure requires that the bill be only about budget items. The more stuff Trump tries to squeeze into the bill, the more likely there will be items that the Senate parliamentarian rules as "non-budget" and must be scrapped. Giving the Border Patrol more money is simply a budget item and is fine, but creating a Deportation Force (or whatever it is called) is not and that has to go through the regular order.
Putting all of Trump's wishes in one giant package and then getting every single Republican on board with it will be quite an achievement for Mike Johnson if he can pull it off. Of course, if this fails, the fall-back strategy is multiple bills, for taxes, immigration, energy, etc. That might be easier in some ways. But not all ways. Keep reading. (V)