Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday, the Republican majority in the House managed to elect a Speaker on the first ballot. Mike Johnson (R-LA) has thus accomplished something that eluded Kevin McCarthy (not to mention Johnson himself, the first time he claimed the gavel).
This does come with a caveat, however. When the votes were first announced, there were three Republican defectors: Thomas Massie (KY), Ralph Norman (SC) and Keith Self (TX). Massie was a lost cause, and so the vote was kept "open" while Norman and Self were subjected to cajoling, arm-twisting, threats, and so forth. Eventually, they folded and agreed to change their votes. And so, the appearance of unity was sustained, at least for now.
This does not strike us as a particularly meaningful story, however. If the Republicans had managed to turn things into a fiasco, it would have made for great popcorn viewing, at least for Democrats. But it clearly wouldn't have hurt the GOP at the ballot box. After all, the first Johnson election was the biggest speakership election fiasco since the Civil War era, and took place considerably closer to Election Day, and the Republicans were not affected.
Meanwhile, we presume that a day of unity and successful cat-herding is not the new normal. First, the Republicans did not want to do anything to interfere with the presidential certification on Monday. Even the nutters answer to voters who would be furious about that. This pressure will not exist in the future. Second, there was no "win" here for the far right. They had absolutely no hope of seating someone even further right than Johnson, and to act otherwise would be tilting at windmills. On the other hand, they certainly can convince themselves (rightly or not) that withholding their votes on legislation will result in the legislation being pushed further right.
That said, here's the counter-argument. What Johnson will have, in 16 days, is a whip-in-chief in the White House. Johnson has never had that before (and he needed it yesterday). Maybe that will be enough to make the thinnest majority in a century workable. It didn't generally work out that way for Paul Ryan, from 2017-19, despite his enjoying a considerably larger margin of error. But you never know. (Z)