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The Russian poet (and later dissident) Yevgeny Yevtushenko wrote: "Everything I do, I do on the principle of Russian borscht. You can throw everything into it beets, carrots, cabbage, onions, everything you want. What's important is the result, the taste of the borscht." This is a pretty good characterization of Donald Trump's Ukraine "policy" (if you can call it that). He's thrown just about everything at the wall, from "help Ukraine out" to "sell Ukraine out." Because there's no real coherence, then whatever outcome may come to pass, he can tell the world that the borscht tastes very good, indeed, and so can claim victory.
We write this as prelude to the news that the United States and Ukraine have, reportedly, reached agreement on a "military support in exchange for rare earth minerals" deal. Actually, it's more like a framework, as the terms are vague. Still, it's substantive enough that Volodymyr Zelenskyy may travel to the U.S. today to sign on behalf of his country.
So, what are the terms, such as they are? Ukraine has agreed to set up a joint fund with the U.S. to invest in mineral extraction, and to give the United States access to some fraction of whatever is produced. In exchange, the United States has agreed to support Ukrainian security. What, precisely, does that mean? According to Trump, it means "lots of ... military equipment and the right to fight on." He also bragged that: "I gave the Javelin [missile]s, and the Javelins are the things that knocked out those tanks right at the beginning of the war. They said that... that [former President Barack] Obama, at the time, gave sheets, and Trump gave Javelins. Well, I was the one that did that."
We are going to give readers our assessment of the deal, but before we do, allow us to remind everyone of two things: (1) Diplomacy is not one of our areas of expertise, and (2) Based on extensive past experience, we have an inherently low opinion of Trump's skills as a diplomat, and so may have a built-in inclination to view any of his "deals" negatively.
With that out of the way, here is our take on the deal: Trump got played. Zelenskyy, unlike Trump, has proven to be a shrewd fellow and a talented negotiator. The Ukrainian is more than clever enough to figure out that: (1) politically, Trump probably cannot afford to throw Ukraine under the bus, and (2) all that Trump really cares about is a "win." Not only did Zelenskyy give Trump the ability to say "See, I won! Another demonstration of 'the art of the deal!'" but he did so in a manner that actually encourages the White House to send bigger and better weapons to Ukraine. You can imagine the conversation when Zelenskyy comes to the U.S. to sign the deal: "Joe Biden didn't have the courage to give us [POWERFUL WEAPON X]. I bet you aren't the coward he is, though." He will also add: "Of course, the investment we're making isn't going to be worth anything if Ukraine falls, so you'll undoubtedly want to do everything possible to make sure we stay independent."
Meanwhile, perhaps more important than what Zelenskyy got is what he gave up, which is... close to nothing. Remember that Trump's "opening bid" was $500 billion in rare earths, so as to pay the U.S. back for its investment in Ukraine (plus a tidy profit). Every piece that we read said this figure was crazypants, since the United States' direct aid to Ukraine thus far is around $70 billion, and its additional investment is about $80 billion more, for a total outlay of something like $150 billion. The framework that will be signed today (or soon) contains no mention of $500 billion (or any other figure) and no mention of Ukraine paying the U.S. back.
On top of that, the minerals to which the U.S. will gain access are not nearly the pot full of cobalt at the end of the rainbow that Trump seems to imagine. Indeed, one wonders if he actually has any real grasp of the facts on the ground. The last study of Ukraine's deposits was conducted by the national government... back when the national government was the government of the Soviet Union. In other words, the geologic information is well more than three decades old, and was compiled with the use of tools that are extremely outdated. As readers will know, at least in part because we have pointed it out several times, lots of places have rare earth deposits. Many fewer places have rare earth deposits that are pure enough and/or accessible enough to be worth trying to extract.
Further, let us imagine that one or more of the Ukrainian deposits does prove to be viable. If so, it still takes quite a while to set up a rare earth extraction operation. How long? The average time from commencement of survey operations to the production of the first ounce of rare earths is... 18 years. Undoubtedly, that could be sped up some, though it is worth noting that Ukraine is currently in the midst of a war, and that its infrastructure is in bad condition. That suggests that even hitting the average would be tough. Certainly, there is zero chance that a deal with Ukraine produces anything tangible, much less any positive economic impact, during Trump's term in office.
It is instructive, we think, that the Zelenskyy administration pitched a version of this deal to the Biden administration, as a way of trying to grease the skids with Congress, and Team Biden dismissed it out of hand as too speculative. "It just wasn't taken as something that was at all realistic," remarked one Biden White House official who was part of the discussions. "Let me just say that I'm not aware of a single U.S. company that was clamoring to get into the mining business in Ukraine." It is similarly instructive that Vladimir Putin has now said, multiple times, that if Russia wins the war, they will be happy to give the U.S. access to the rare earths. Putin knows full well that we're talking about a lottery ticket here, and one that, even if it pays off, is not likely to do so before he and Trump are both dead (Putin would be 90 years old in 18 years, while Trump would be 96).
In short, we are once again underwhelmed by diplomacy, Trump style. Of course, not everyone agrees. Marc Thiessen, as many readers will know, has been The Washington Post's most enthusiastic Trump apologist for close to a decade (especially since Hugh Hewitt resigned). Yesterday, Thiessen penned an op-ed with the headline: "Trump just dealt Russia a devastating blow: A deal for Ukraine's minerals could effectively end the war." You should really take anything Thiessen writes with a barrel full of salt (and, ideally, a fifth of whiskey). Still, if you want to see the Trump-friendliest take possible, there's the link.
You never know what will happen, particularly if Putin decides to pull whatever strings he has that are connected to Trump or to other White House insiders. But, at least at the moment, it looks to us like the President has once again channeled his inner anti-Theodore Roosevelt: "Speak very loudly, and carry a tiny little stick." (Z)