Dem
47
GOP
53
Donald Trump's policy on Ukraine is a mess and changes hourly. There are two general approaches countries have to foreign policy. The first one is based on ideology. Countries support other countries that share their values, no matter where they are. So the U.S. supports countries that are capitalistic and democratic, no matter where they are, even as far away as Australia. Russia supports countries that are communist, even as far away as Cuba.
The alternative is a spheres of influence approach. In this one, big countries get to control and dictate policy to smaller countries near them. In this model, the U.S. gets to run the Western Hemisphere, Russia gets to run Europe, and China gets to run Asia. If this is what Trump chooses, it will be a complete break from decades of U.S. foreign policy that big countries should not invade smaller ones just because they can. Of course, since the rule of law means nothing to Trump domestically, why should it internationally?
Trump seems to be going back and forth between these models. On some days he is for supporting Ukraine as a free and capitalistic country and wants to make a deal to buy all its valuable rare earths and other minerals. On other days he doesn't care if Russia absorbs the whole country—or at least the eastern part, for the time being—even though that is where the rare earths are located.
Last week there was a meeting of the G7 on the occasion of the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This for what Vladimir Putin expected to be a blitzkrieg 2-day war. The other members wanted to issue a statement condemning Russian aggression. U.S. officials refused since Trump is now spouting Putin's line that Ukraine was the aggressor. We now live in a post-fact reality.
Does Trump really believe this, or is it a negotiating tactic? He often makes a first offer that is totally and completely unacceptable to the other side so that his second or third offer, which is merely outrageous, seems good by comparison. Trump's first offer was half of Ukraine's minerals, probably worth $15 trillion, in return for a vague promise of uncertain aid. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could never accept this. Maybe a deal in which American mining companies would get exclusive rights to negotiate deals for the minerals in return for specific weapon deliveries might be possible in the end. But if Ukraine remains a sovereign country, Putin would be unhappy, and Trump hates to make his buddies unhappy.
Another factor here is Elon Musk. Trump couldn't tell a rare earth from a rare hamberder. Musk can probably tell erbium from terbium blindfolded, by feeling it. Rare earths make the magnets used to propel electric cars more powerful, so Musk is very much interested in getting a supply from a country other than China. Rare earths are not actually rare. The U.S. has large deposits of rare earths—for example, in California—but the process used to extract and refine them pollutes the environment horribly. Better somebody else takes the environmental hit. Brazil, India, and Australia also have large deposits. Here is a tutorial on what rare earths are and why they are valuable in many products, not just electric cars.
Trump's indecision on Ukraine is opening a rift between the MAGA Militia, who are happy to give Russia whatever it wants, and those Republicans who came of age during the Reagan administration and see Russia as the "evil empire." The latter are represented by Nikki Haley, who tweeted: "These are classic Russian talking points. Exactly what Putin wants," and Mike Pence, who tweeted: "Mr. President, Ukraine did not start this war. Russia launched an unprovoked and brutal invasion claiming hundreds of thousands of lives." More important, the Murdoch-owned New York Post ran this image on page 1:
Notice the Ukrainian flag on the top right. We doubt that was an accident. If Murdoch's other properties start defending Ukraine and attacking Russia, that could put Trump in a bind. Maybe this was a warning to Trump.
Conservative writers Ben Shapiro and Mark Levin also disputed Trump's assertions that Ukraine started the war and that Zelenskyy is a dictator. On the other hand, when asked, Trump's supporters seem to be parroting back Trump's line that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a dictator. This is because the Ukrainian president did cancel the scheduled elections on the grounds that having him spend his time campaigning instead of traveling around the world begging for weapons would mean the end of the country. However, the Ukrainian Constitution did give him some leeway to do that in an emergency. (V)