Dem
47
GOP
53
We have no idea what the correct approach to the mess in Ukraine is. But we do have a pretty good idea what the wrong approach is, as the Trump administration is providing an object lesson in that subject at this very moment.
Yesterday marked the conclusion of round one of the "peace" discussions that include the U.S. and Russia, but not Ukraine or the various powers of Europe. Nothing much was accomplished, apparently, with the result that there will be a second round of talks at some undetermined future date. And yet, despite the lack of progress, many things are now evident to anyone who is paying attention:
We wonder if Rubio is regretting giving up a safe Senate seat for this gig. If he is, well, he really should have seen this coming from a mile away.
In any case, as we note, all of these dynamics are evident to anyone who is paying attention. Like, say, Vladimir Putin. He's a reprehensible human being, but he's also a skilled player of diplomatic chess, and he knows full well that in this game, he's a grandmaster up against a player who is Class D, at best. Consider the assessment of Foreign Policy magazine, whose authors know a wee bit more about these things than we do:
In Moscow, it was like Christmas, Easter, and New Year's all rolled into one. In a gushing readout of his call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the immediate start of negotiations about the future of Ukraine—without preconditions or other countries at the table. Earlier, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine and any chance of a return to the country's internationally recognized borders, fulfilling two key Russian conditions. On the same day, the U.S. Senate confirmed Tulsi Gabbard, whose talking points often align with Kremlin propaganda, as the next director of national intelligence.
The Kremlin and its media machine have not been this ecstatic since the launch of Putin's "special military operation" on Feb. 24, 2022, when for a day or two it actually looked as if Russian forces would overrun Ukraine without much of a fight. "Trump is now doing our job for us" by "sawing" Europe into pieces, Russian talk show host Evgeny Popov told his viewers. His giddy, smiling co-host, Olga Skabeeva, described the turn of events as having been "unimaginable" and "unthinkable" before. On another show, the pundit Sergey Mikheev was elated by another Hegseth remark that was widely interpreted to mean that Washington was reconsidering its security commitment to Europe. Mikheev concluded that Russia was finally free to strike Brussels, London, and Paris. Some pundits basked in the fact that it was Trump who reached out to Putin. "It's as if Julius Ceasar himself telephoned a barbarian," Mosfilm studio chief Karen Shakhnazarov commented on another show.
If that's not bad enough, the latest intel suggests that Putin has no intention of ending the war, even on extremely favorable terms. Instead, the plan is to string Trump along for as long as is possible, get the administration to kick the legs out from under Ukraine as much as is possible, and then to continue the war, with the goal still being the total absorption of Ukraine into Russia.
Indeed, Trump v2.0 is a month old as of tomorrow, and Putin has already taken the administration to the cleaners at least once. Last week, the White House secured the return of American school teacher Marc Fogel. This is something the Biden administration was unable to do, so Trump naturally took several victory laps. He also claimed that the costs of the exchange were "minimal" and that it was not a prisoner swap.
As it turns out, when Trump said it was not a prisoner swap, what he actually meant is that... it was a prisoner swap. The Russians secured the release of Alexander Vinnik, a very bad guy who used crypto to launder billions of dollars. Put aside the hypocrisy of Trump attacking Joe Biden when Biden traded bad guys for Brittney Griner and other Russian hostages. Trump has just given yet another object lesson that if Russia wants any criminal back, no matter how awful, all they have to do is grab a random American. Oh, and he's also offered up more than a hint that if the Russians can set up an agreement under circumstances that Trump would prefer not be made public, they can perhaps create a little kompromat for themselves.
Thus far, this item hasn't been too cheery. So, here's the good news, such as it is. While the Russians are taking note of the fecklessness of the Trump administration, so too are the member states of the E.U. They are not going to let Ukraine go without a fight. And so, the E.U. is quickly organizing a summit, at which they will discuss what to do about Ukraine if the U.S. turns its back on Zelenskyy. As we have noted, the nations of Europe do not have military resources as extensive as the U.S. But they are hardly pushovers, either. And they do have one card to play that, while not optimal, could be laid on the table: direct military involvement.
In the short term, Trump would surely cheer a situation in which bullets are flying, and the U.S. is not involved. This is because he does not have the long-term vision to recognize that if the U.S. makes clear it's no longer available to be a loyal partner to the nations of Europe, the nations of Europe will make clear they are no longer available to be a loyal partner to the U.S. Add Canada and Mexico to that, and things could get lonely for America on the world stage very quickly. "America First" could turn into "America Alone" very quickly, and Trump is not aware how intertwined the American economy is with the world economy. (Z)