Dem
47
GOP
53
When he is acting in his capacity as a businessman, Donald Trump can bully pretty much everyone he deals with by virtue of being the boss, or else having lots of money and lawyers. When he is acting in his capacity as a politician, at least domestically, he retains the same power because he commands the fanatical loyalty of the base.
Because he meets so little resistance in most areas of his life, Trump might forget there are some circumstances where bullying might not work. We will have an item about the (increasingly shaky) diplomatic relationship between Trump and the leaders of Europe tomorrow. Today, however, it's a briefer item about the risks of slapping tariffs on the European Union.
If Trump does try to hit the E.U. with new duties—which he has certainly promised to do—the impact in the U.S. will be felt very unequally. Here is a list of the 20 U.S. states who rely the most on E.U. products, with: (1) what percentage of the state's total imports come from the E.U.; (2) the total value of the goods the state imports from the E.U.; and (3) whether the state has a Senate race scheduled for 2026:
| State | Pct. Imports | Total Value | Senate? |
| Indiana | 46.21% | $58,696,886,377 | No |
| North Carolina | 45.19% | $43,190,299,106 | Yes |
| Rhode Island | 38.76% | $4,811,129,055 | Yes |
| New Hampshire | 34.34% | $4,210,174,126 | Yes |
| Maryland | 33.38% | $16,922,259,371 | No |
| South Carolina | 32.49% | $22,516,150,106 | Yes |
| Kentucky | 31.45% | $34,508,188,293 | Yes |
| Pennsylvania | 29.92% | $48,948,155,420 | No |
| Arkansas | 29.26% | $2,347,996,891 | Yes |
| New Jersey | 26.71% | $60,043,736,742 | Yes |
| Wisconsin | 26.33% | $11,291,219,102 | No |
| Connecticut | 25.08% | $7,733,489,979 | No |
| Massachusetts | 24.53% | $14,854,690,324 | Yes |
| Virginia | 23.00% | $12,617,378,403 | Yes |
| Kansas | 22.73% | $3,815,663,236 | Yes |
| Florida | 22.65% | $33,055,394,955 | Yes |
| Georgia | 21.87% | $38,709,201,060 | Yes |
| Alabama | 21.84% | $9,572,045,837 | Yes |
| Iowa | 21.63% | $3,234,515,753 | Yes |
| Ohio | 20.46% | $20,713,680,097 | Yes |
Putting a tariff on imports from the E.U. makes their products more expensive for consumers. Economists call it "inflation." As a general rule, consumers (some of whom are also voters), tend not to like this inflation-thingie.
As you can see, there are a lot of red states on that list. There are a lot of purple states. And there are a whole lot of states with Senate elections next year. Meanwhile, the states that do not trade all that much with the E.U. are mostly, as you might guess, the ones that are farthest away from the E.U. In other words, the states that will be least affected by reciprocal tariffs from the Europeans are mostly commie pinko states like California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii.
It remains the case that Trump is personally convinced that tariffs are magical, and will fix... stuff? Further, he has promised bigly tariffs, including on the E.U., over and over. However, whenever it comes time for the rubber to hit the road, he wilts, presumably knowing that he'll have to own the consequences. What this means is that we haven't the faintest idea how this will actually play out. (Z)