Feb.18

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Adams Administration in Crisis

The ongoing soap opera in New York City delivered another oh-so-exciting episode yesterday, as four high-ranking members of the city government tendered their resignations.

Stepping down are First Deputy Mayor Maria Torres-Springer, Deputy Mayor for Health and Human Services Anne Williams-Isom, Deputy Mayor for Operations Meera Joshi and Deputy Mayor for Public Safety Chauncey Parker. That is half the city's deputy mayors, including the most significant among them, as the first deputy mayor is responsible for day-to-day administration of the city. The four resignees, while being appropriately polite and formal, made clear that they are quitting because they want no part of a (possibly illegal) quid pro quo on immigration policy with the Trump administration.

Adams, for his part, offered the usual "thanks for your loyal service" pleasantries, and pledged that his administration will keep on keepin' on. He can, of course, appoint new deputy mayors—and this time around, perhaps choose people who are going to be more... morally pliable, for lack of a better term. And while we do not know the man all that well, since we are not residents of New York City or State, he seems like he is exactly the type to hold on until there's nothing left to hold on to. And even if that were not his natural inclination, his powers as mayor are the only real leverage he has when it comes to persuading Donald Trump to protect Adams from a trial and a very probable prison sentence. (And, by the way, prison inmates just LOVE former cops.)

What it amounts to is that the ball is almost certainly in the court of Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). Here is a list of some of the varied, and often conflicting, things she undoubtedly has on her mind as she considers whether to exercise her power to remove Adams:

• She and Adams have generally worked well together; there's no guarantee the Governor will have a harmonious relationship with the person elected as Adams' successor.
  
  
• Adams has the same basic base as... Andrew Cuomo, who would almost certainly jump in if there's a special election for a new mayor, and who may well win, simply because other candidates would have less time to build name recognition. Presumably, the working relationship between Hochul and the guy she replaced as governor would be awkward, to say the least.
  
  
• Hochul, who is not popular, is up for reelection next year. If she alienates Black voters, who are also a part of Adams' base, she could be done for.
  
  
• Democrats in New York State government largely want Adams gone. That includes Hochul's handpicked lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado (D). For some, this is a question of ethics. For others, they don't want an Adams-shaped anchor around their necks heading into an election year. For most, it's probably both things.
  
  
• Trump very much wants Adams to stay in power because the White House is not going to have de facto kompromat on the person who might replace Adams. For at least 80 days, that would be Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, who is pro-Gazans and is definitely not anti-immigrant. He would definitely give Trump an earful.
  
  In order to keep Adams firmly in place, Trump might turn the screws on Hochul. In particular, the President has already been carping about New York City's new congestion pricing. He could kill that initiative by yanking the federal permits that allow New York to charge the extra tolls, which would hurt Hochul and would give him a "win" he could brag about. Alternatively, he could withhold federal highway funding from New York State. Or he could do both things. These courses of action, whether the former, the latter, or both, could deprive New York of billions of dollars the state needs for infrastructure. This would not be helpful for the Governor's reelection bid.

At the moment, given the different directions in which she is being pulled, Hochul is playing things very close to the vest. She hasn't yet thrown Adams under the bus (the subway?), but she also refuses to commit to keeping him in office.

Ultimately, a resolution here is likely going to come down to two things. The first is the decision that will be made by Judge Dale Ho. As long as there is a possibility of Adams being put on trial, then Hochul can punt by saying "we have to let the process play out." If and when it becomes clear there will be no trial, then the pressure on Hochul to step in and make sure some measure of justice is meted out will be intense.

The second consideration is the posture that will be adopted by key Black leaders in New York City. Already, some prominent members of that community have turned against Adams, seeing him as a Trump flunky. However, there are three key Black residents of New York City who have yet to call for Adams' ouster: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Rep. Gregory Meeks (both D-NY), and Rev. Al Sharpton. If circumstances leave Hochul in a position where she is under a hundred atmospheres' worth of pressure to cashier Adams, she will speak to that trio and ask them to support her play. If at least two of them agree, Adams' goose is definitely cooked. (Z)