Dem
47
GOP
53
In addition to his role as "peacemaker," Donald Trump has other irons in the fire. Last week, Trump told Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he would continue supporting Ukraine on the condition that Ukraine give America half of its mineral wealth—primarily rare earth elements used in the magnets for electric cars. In the past, Trump has opposed electric cars (possibly on the advice of his oil-industry donors), but he seems to have changed his tune now (possibly on the advice of... someone?). European diplomats were shocked by Trump's audacity, since the value of the minerals is many times the amount of aid the U.S. has given Ukraine, which is about $115 billion. Some estimates of the value of Ukraine's rare earths run as high as $15 trillion. Ukraine also has lithium and uranium. In the Ukrainians' (old-fashioned) view, when your friend is down after being attacked by a ruthless bully, you are not supposed to see that as an opportunity to screw him over. But negotiating with Trump works differently.
Is this offer now obsolete, and the new plan is for the U.S. and Russia to partition Ukraine (see above)? Who knows? Things move so fast. One complication is that most of the rare earths that Trump wants are located in eastern Ukraine—the part that would become absorbed into Russia itself. Would Trump accept a deal in which the minerals he and his co-president, Elon Musk, want would suddenly be inside Russia?
Ukrainian officials know that one of Trump's negotiating strategies is to make a wildly unrealistic and absurd first offer so that a later outrageous offer will seem reasonable by comparison. Consequently, they rejected Trump's bid. They are working on a counteroffer. They want a guarantee of their territorial integrity as part of the deal. That would mean in the event of Russia coming close to taking over the whole country, the U.S. would intervene militarily to save it. Trump is not likely to swallow this. But this is likely THEIR outrageous first bid. What they might be hoping for is a final deal in which multiple U.S. companies would be allowed to bid against each other to buy Ukrainian minerals before any foreign companies were allowed to bid.
The Ukrainians understand U.S. politics. As it turns out, Ukraine has a surplus of eggs at the moment. Would Trump perhaps be interested in getting millions of eggs as part of the deal? Trump is trying to bring down egg prices and might see that as an eggscellent idea.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) made an interesting comment about the rare earths deal. If the U.S. has a major economic interest in Ukraine's minerals, Trump will be unlikely to allow Vladimir Putin to steal them. If Graham is right, this deal with Ukraine could make Trump think of Ukraine as his business partner and Putin as his enemy. But if Trump didn't allow Putin to take over eastern Ukraine (and the rare earths) what would they discuss in Saudi Arabia? This is what seat-of-your-pants diplomacy looks like, it would seem. (V)