Feb.17

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Sometimes the Battles Are Personal

Doris Kearns Goodwin's famous book Team of Rivals, about Abraham Lincoln's cabinet, showed how Lincoln's choices indicated his political brilliance (and his willingness to control his ego in service of broader goals). Donald Trump has also appointed numerous "rivals" to his cabinet, but it may not work out as well for him as it did for Lincoln. Based on Trump v1.0, if Goodwin writes a book about Trump's new appointees and allies, it might be called Pit of Vipers. These could be some of the chapters:

• Steve Bannon vs. Elon Musk: This bash is already in full swing. Steve Bannon was one of the original MAGA Militiamen and does not trust the opportunistic Elon Musk one whit. Bannon has already called Musk "truly evil." Musk responded: "Bannon is a great talker, but not a great doer. What did he get done this week? Nothing." Maybe Bannon convinced thousands of the people who listen to his podcasts to see Musk as a snake. This is not going to play out well.
  
  
• Mike Johnson vs. John Thune: The House and Senate leaders don't hate each other personally, but they run very different chambers, with different rules and different margins. Also, they got their jobs by different mechanisms. Right now, they are battling over whether to put all of Trump's priorities into one megabill or two minimegabills. Compromising on 1½ bills is not an option. Johnson has to deal with a tiny margin and several hardliners whose ideas are anathema to the few coastal Republicans left in the House, but whose votes are essential. On the other hand, except for budget bills, Thune has to worry about the Democrats filibustering everything. Johnson doesn't have that worry and may end up with bills much too radical for the Senate and certainly for the Senate Democrats. In addition, Thune is an institutional conservative who came up through the ranks. Johnson became speaker because Trump parachuted him into the chair. That might not work out so well in the end.
  
  
• Tulsi Gabbard vs. John Ratcliffe: Ratcliffe used to be DNI himself in Trump v1.0 and is probably not happy being demoted and put under a woman who knows nothing about spycraft, except maybe what she learned from her good buddy Vlad Putin. That in itself is a formula for trouble. Also, Ratcliffe supports Sec. 702 of FISA, which allows warrantless surveillance of non-Americans abroad, even though this sometimes picks up Americans who are in contact with the target. When Gabbard was in Congress, she introduced legislation to repeal that section. Gabbard has to prepare the President's Daily Brief and will need help from Ratcliffe to prepare it. He is likely to try to avoid helping her, since he sees it as a waste of time, as Trump never reads it. Ratcliffe is a skilled professional and she is not. It is not hard to imagine him feeding her false information designed to get her to make a fool of herself in front of Trump. For example: "Mr. President, we have received reports of rising tensions between Florin and Guilder. Something about a kidnapping. A war there is no longer inconceivable."
  
  
• Robert Kennedy Jr. vs. Brooke Rollins: In addition to trying to get rid of vaccines, Bobby Jr. has other ambitions, such as Make America Healthy Again. This involves food policy, which is on Rollins' turf. She will not take Kennedy's trying to muscle in well. She is closely tied to Big Ag and he is not. For example, she wants to force states to allow the sale of pork from crated pigs. He opposes this. She is not likely to take his advice on this and other food-related matters. Rollins' right-hand woman, Kailee Tkacz Buller, has lobbied for the National Oilseed Processors Association. Kennedy, along with masculinity influencers Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson, are sworn enemies of seed oils.
  
  
• Stephen Miller vs. Sriram Krishnan: Miller is Trump's muse, especially on immigration. Krishnan is Trump's AI adviser. They are going to collide on skilled immigrants who want H1-B visas. Miller—and Trump's base—do not want any immigrants. Krishnan wants more Indian engineers as immigrants. To some extent, this is a numbers question: How many holders of H1-B visas should be let in? There might be room for compromise—unless Steve Bannon pipes up and argues the correct number is zero.
  
  
• Gail Slater vs. Andrew Ferguson: Trump picked Ferguson to run the FTC, making him the top antitrust enforcer. Slater will lead the antitrust division of the DoJ. She is expected to go after Big Tech from a traditional antitrust view, the way the DoJ once went after Microsoft—that is, for monopolizing some market. He, on the other hand, is a true believer and will probably go after Big Tech for silencing conservative voices. These two views are not really compatible and could lead to battles.
  
  
• Howard Lutnick vs. Scott Bessent: Howard Lutnick wanted to be Secretary of the Treasury and got commerce as a consolation prize. Not a great start. It is in his interest to see that Scott Bessent, who got treasury, is cashiered as fast as possible, to reopen the position. Bessent was fully aware of Lutnick's efforts to torpedo his nomination and told him to "go fu** himself" to his face. They are supposed to work together on a government sovereign fund. Good luck with that.
  
  
• Sebastian Gorka vs. Michael Anton: These two have bad blood going back to Trump v1.0, when Gorka was a deputy assistant to the president. There was a dust-up about who wrote some speech. In a Fox green room, Gorka blew up at Anton and yelled: "No, I'm not gonna shake your hand! How dare you try to shake my hand!" The two are not in the same organizational unit, but they may have to try to work together on counterterrorism.
  
  
• Donald Trump vs Elon Musk: Last week, Trump and Musk were exchanging Valentine's Day wishes. Musk tweeted: "I love @realDonaldTrump as much as a straight man can love another man." This will not last. Politico's senior political columnist, Jonathan Martin, wrote: "The Trump Show is a one-man play. There's not room for anybody else, least of all somebody wealthier and with a (nearly) comparable thirst for attention." At some point, Trump is going to have enough of Musk's stealing all the limelight, and then the fireworks will start. We doubt that Musk will go gentle into that good night and once again become a car salesman.
  

Some of these pairs may work it out in the spirit of MAD—Mutually Assured Destruction—but others probably won't. If Trump v1.0 is any guide, the number of divorces will be greater than the number of stable marriages. (V)