Dem
47
GOP
53
There's been a fair bit of news in the last 24 hours about the major 2026 political races, despite the fact that we are only in February 2025.
First up, and of the greatest consequence, Sen. Tina Smith (DFL-MN) has decided to call it a career. She's only 66, which is young by the standards of the U.S. Senate. However, after 1½ terms, she has decided that she's had her fill. Frankly, we're surprised anyone manages to spend even 2 years in the presence of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), much less 7 or 8 years.
Naturally, a political party never likes to see an incumbent retire, especially in a purplish state. That said, and as we've noted a million times, midterm elections usually feature a backlash against the party that controls the White House. That figures to be doubly true with this White House. So, it's probably as good a time as any to try to elect a new incumbent. Also, although Minnesota is purple, it's a very blue shade of purple. While the Republicans have run a few very close races, they haven't actually won statewide since 2006.
This being the case, every office holder at the state level is a Democrat-Farmer-Laborer. And so, the blue team's bench is very deep. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has already jumped in, and Gov. Tim Walz said he might get in, too. State Secretary of State Steve Simon and state AG Keith Ellison are possibilities, as are Rep. Angie Craig and Mayor Jacob Frey of Minneapolis. For a few hours yesterday, there was a "draft Al Franken" movement, but he quickly shot that down and said that, at age 73, he is not interested in trying to reclaim his former seat. Dean Phillips has also taken a pass.
On the Republican side, the cupboard is a bit more bare. Royce White had declared even before Smith dropped out; he's the former NBA player (he played 3 whole minutes in his career) who has some... unusual ideas, and who got smoked by Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL-MN) last year by 16 points. Former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze is also in; his main qualification for office is that he is a former Navy SEAL. State Sen. Karin Housley is considering a run; she got crushed by Klobuchar back in 2018. Meanwhile, Rep. Tom Emmer and former governor Tim Pawlenty have already made it clear they are out. Add it all up, and while this seat will be on everyone's "races to watch" list, that's only because so many of the seats up next year are 100% safe. This one is not 100% safe, but it's much closer to being that than it is to being a toss-up.
The other news is gubernatorial in nature. Arizona holds its primaries late in the cycle, so there is a tiny bit less pressure to make decisions... in February of the year before the election. For that reason, presumably, Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) has not yet announced if she will stand for reelection. Until she makes a decision, the race on that side of the aisle is in a holding pattern.
On the other side, however, there is at least some pressure to get into the race before the many other ambitious (and often nutty) Arizona Republicans can get in. Rep. Andy Biggs, who is rather well known for socializing with white supremacists, had already thrown his hood into the ring. And yesterday, businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson got in as well. Unlike Biggs, she's not crazypants. Unfortunately for her, crazypants is what Republican primary voters in Arizona like. In Taylor Robson's first run for office, the 2022 gubernatorial primary, she was defeated by Kari Lake.
Taylor Robson is claiming that she has Donald Trump's endorsement, but take that with a few grains of salt. First, his "endorsement" was clearly left pretty vague. At one of the seemingly infinite number of right-wing conferences, Trump told her: "Are you running for governor? I think so, Karrin. Because if you do, you're gonna have my support, OK?" Further, even if Trump did endorse her, well, Trump endorsements are subject to revision, based on polling.
Finally, the lieutenant governorship in Ohio was left vacant when Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) was appointed to the seat left open by J.D. Vance. However, it's not vacant anymore. Gov. Mike DeWine has picked former Ohio State University head football coach Jim Tressel to take Husted's place. Tressel's previous experience in politics includes: [This space intentionally left blank.]
DeWine undoubtedly made this pick because modern Republican politics often have more to do with celebrity than with anything else, like, say, qualifications. The Governor knows that Vivek Ramaswamy has wide name recognition, and some meaningful amount of support among the MAGA base, and was trying to program against that. Of course, that assumes that the 72-year-old Tressel tries for a promotion next year. The coach has not gotten into the governor's race yet, since he hasn't even been approved as lieutenant governor by the state legislature. However, when asked, he most certainly did not give the Full Sherman. So, it's clearly a real possibility.
If the primary ends up as Ramaswamy vs. Tressel, it will be hard to think of a race, anytime in American history, more devoid of qualifications for office than that one. Well, OK, Dr. Oz vs. David McCormick was very close. (Z)