Feb.13

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Voting Rights Battles to Watch

Republicans (correctly) understand that if all eligible voters could vote in all elections, they would probably never win the presidency again and would struggle in all but deep-red states and districts. The courts have been helpful in suppressing the vote and there are a number of ways the courts could continue on this road in 2025. Here is a summary of eight of the key upcoming battles.

1. The Louisiana Map: Conservatives want to kill off the few bits of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) that the Supreme Court has missed so far. After the Court struck down affirmative action in college admissions in 2023, they want to eliminate race as a factor in everything. They have John Roberts on their side; he famously once said: "The way to end racial discrimination is to stop discriminating on the basis of race."
   
   Specifically, after the 2020 census, Louisiana lawmakers drew a congressional map with seven majority-white districts and one funny-looking majority-Black district that ran 75 miles from Baton Rouge to New Orleans. This despite the population of the state being 33% Black. Activist groups sued, saying there should be two majority-Black districts, one around each city. The plaintiffs won and the Fifth Circuit agreed. A group of white voters want the Supreme Court to throw out the new map. The state is nominally defending its map, but Black groups say it is intentionally doing a poor job of it and actually is hoping for the Supreme Court to kill off Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which shields majority-minority districts.
   
   
2. State-level VRAs: In response to the Supreme Court's gutting the federal VRA, some states have passed their own VRAs. Conservatives are going after these now. New York has one and a lower-court state judge struck it down as unconstitutional. It is now being appealed and will probably get to the U.S. Supreme Court eventually.
   
   
3. Absentee Ballots: In 18 states, absentee ballots postmarked on or before Election Day are counted even if they arrive after Election Day (within some time limit). A case arose in Mississippi and a panel of three Trump appointees in the Fifth Circuit ruled that despite state law, ballots arriving after Election Day may not be counted. Several voter groups have asked for an en banc hearing by the entire Fifth Circuit. This case is sure to hit the Supreme Court eventually. Conservatives hope the Court will ban late ballots nationwide. There is a slight catch here though. As Republicans are starting to vote absentee more and more of late, banning late-arriving ballots might not be the big win Republicans are imagining.
   
   
4. Voter Assistance: Red states have passed all kinds of laws making it more difficult for voter groups to help people vote. Alabama passed a law making it a major felony to help someone vote by mail. For example, helping a voter who is blind. Missouri banned helping people register. Florida banned non-citizens from helping a voter register (for example, driving them to city hall). All of these laws are in the courts now.
   
   
5. Disenfranchisement: Virginia used to allow ex-felons to vote once they had paid their debt to society, but Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) instituted a lifetime voting ban for felons, even after their release. He knows that felons are disproportionately Black and Black people are disproportionately Democrats. A case brought by a former felon is in the courts now.
   
   
6. Documentation: Republicans are constantly harping on noncitizens voting, when in reality the number of noncitizens voting (which is a felony) is microscopic. Nevertheless, Republicans keep passing state laws demanding that people present proof of citizenship to register or vote. Many states have voter ID laws. Republicans know that many poor people do not have a driver's license or a passport, not to mention more exotic forms of ID like a Global Entry card. They also know that poor people tend to vote for Democrats. Republicans also know that college students tend to vote for Democrats, so in Texas, for example, a student ID card issued by the University of Texas is not a valid ID, but a gun permit is. Some states have had mass purges of the voting rolls, and voters need a valid ID to get back on. Getting a valid ID often requires a birth (or naturalization) certificate. If the office that issues birth certificates is open only Monday-Friday from 2 to 5 and charges $50, that makes it hard for people who can't get off from work (say, bus drivers) to get one, whereas people with flexible schedules (say, lawyers) can manage it. There are several cases about voter ID in the courts now. Eventually they will get to the Supreme Court.
   
   
7. Local Voting: Federal law does not determine who can vote in municipal elections. Some cities allow residents who are not U.S. citizens to vote for mayor and city council. These cities include New York, which has an election for mayor this year. In 2021, a local judge struck down the city ordinance allowing noncitizens to vote and an appeals court upheld the judge. Now it has been appealed to the New York Court of Appeals, which hasn't ruled yet.
   
   
8. Gerrymandering: In 2010, Floridians approved two constitutional amendments that barred racial and partisan gerrymandering, respectively. Lawmakers ignored the amendments and drew gerrymandered maps anyway. In 2015, the state Supreme Court struck down the maps. This produced a new majority-Black district running from Tallahassee to Jacksonville. Democrat Al Lawson won the seat. In 2022, urged on by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), the legislature eliminated Lawson's district in a very aggressive gerrymander. Voting rights groups sued. The case is now in the state Supreme Court. Although it is an open-and-shut case, Chief Justice Carlos Muniz has said the amendments might be unconstitutional. If the actual words in the Constitution can be found to be unconstitutional, that opens all kinds of new questions.

These are just a few of the many attempts to make voting difficult. There are many more. (V)