Dem
47
GOP
53
Both chambers of Congress are working on a budget resolution and they are on a collision course. The budget reconciliation process, which the Republicans plan to use to avoid the budget being filibustered, starts with a budget resolution. Both chambers need to pass it. It serves as an outline directing each committee to draw up a budget for its jurisdiction and tells the committee how much they can spend. The committees then need to put together an actual budget that comes in at or under what the resolution says. They can add or drop programs as they wish, provided the total spending isn't higher than the budget they have been allocated.
In practice, the budget resolution starts from the status quo and directs each committee to make cuts for a certain amount. The House just got its act together and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) presented his plan yesterday. It is only 45 pages, although the actual budget will run thousands of pages. The proposed resolution states that the "goal" is to cut $2 trillion off mandatory spending but also increases the debt limit by $4 trillion. The Budget Committee will take up the resolution this week.
Even if it gets through the Committee, getting it passed through the full House won't be easy. If the vote comes after Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is confirmed to be U.N. Ambassador and has resigned from the House, it would take only two Republican defections to sink the resolution. Donald Trump wants to eliminate the federal income tax on tips and also wants to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent. House Republicans from New York and California want more SALT, and SALT is very expensive. All of this means either more spending cuts need to be found or the House has to accept a larger deficit. Getting 218 Republicans to agree on the way forward will not be easy.
Furthermore, House Republicans want one giant bill with all of Trump's goals in it. Putting together a giant package is going to generate fights over things other than how much money each department gets.
The guy in charge of getting the resolution through the House is Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX). He is a hard-liner and many House members find him both arrogant and incompetent, an often-lethal combination. One House member on background said: "We'll soon find out if Jodey is in over his head." His top priority is cutting spending, but that is not what Trump ran on. Many of the other chairmen don't trust Arrington and don't see him as a team player. They don't think he can corral all his members and still get a resolution that contains all of Trump's priorities, his own priorities, and reduces the deficit at the same time—and in a situation where two Republican votes on the floor will kill the resolution. More specifically, he doesn't like the proposal Johnson cooked up because it doesn't kill as much spending as he would like.
One guy who especially is not enamormed of Arrington is House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO). For him, implementing Trump's goals is more important than reducing spending and cutting the deficit, something Trump doesn't care about. If the budget resolution is too tight, it might be impossible to extend all of the 2017 tax cuts, end the tax on tips and give the representatives who live near the oceans more SALT. The math might not add up and Smith will then have a problem. Ending the tax on tips will be especially complicated since no doubt there are hedge fund managers who would be willing to accept $1/year in salary and hope the other partners give them a nice big tip. That kind of shenanigans could cost the government a lot of money. Consequently, the wording of the "no tax on tips" clause in the law has to be written in such a way that even the most expensive and skilled tax lawyers can't work around.
Oh, and now the Freedom Caucus has come up with its own plan. It prioritizes cutting the deficit by drastically cutting spending. Their plan is sure to conflict with what Johnson wants, what Arrington wants, what Trump wants, and what the SALT lovers want. Herding all the cats or making the sausage, whatever your preferred metaphor is, won't be simple with such a tiny majority and many people pulling in different directions.
Meanwhile, Senate Republicans saw all this coming and decided to head 'em off at the pass. So the senators wrote their own budget resolution, rather than wait for one to come over from the House. Also, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) wants a simple budget resolution that is budget only. He wants to give Trump a quick win and thinks that leaving immigration and other issues for a second bill later will make the wheels turn faster. Johnson is strongly opposed to this plan. How is this going to play out? We don't know, but it could take quite a while. If the process goes on until April, Trump will be furious, but by then the two vacant seats in Florida may be filled, giving the Republicans a tiny bit more breathing space. (V)