Dem
47
GOP
53
Back in the 2010s, the Republican Party went all-in on state legislatures, recognizing that they have an awful lot of influence on policy, and on the conduct of elections. The Democratic Party allowed itself to get caught flat-footed, such that a disproportionate number of state legislative chambers went red. Oops.
The blue team is doing what it can to learn from its mistakes, and also to try to undo the damage that resulted from its negligence. And so, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) released its 2025-26 Target Map yesterday. Here, first of all, are the "Battleground States," with the current breakdown of the lower and upper chambers in each:
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| Alaska | 21 | 19 | 11 | 9 |
| Minnesota | 67 | 66 | 33 | 34 |
| Michigan | 58 | 52 | 18 | 20 |
| Pennsylvania | 101 | 102 | 28 | 22 |
| Virginia | 49 | 51 | 19 | 21 |
| Wisconsin | 54 | 45 | 18 | 15 |
The above table comes with a few notes. First, the Alaska House of Representatives has an unusual situation where two Republicans caucus with the Democrats and independents. So, although the chamber is majority-Republican, it is controlled by the Democrats, hence the blue shading. Meanwhile, in Minnesota, one seat in the House of Representatives is currently vacant, and will likely be filled by a Democrat on March 11, which will leave the chamber tied. Finally, Wisconsin is much more lopsided in favor of the Republicans than these other state houses; the Democrats are focusing on it because new, non-gerrymandered maps leave open the possibility of big gains.
Here are the four chambers that the DLCC puts in a category it calls "Power Building." None of these is a serious candidate for flipping in the next 2 years; they are longer-term plays:
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| Arizona | 33 | 27 | 17 | 13 |
| Georgia | 100 | 80 | 33 | 23 |
| North Carolina | 71 | 49 | 30 | 20 |
| New Hampshire | 221 | 177 | 16 | 8 |
Note that there is one independent serving in the New Hampshire House of Representatives, and there is also one seat that is vacant, to be filled at a yet-to-be-specified date, probably by a Democrat. That assumes the blue team can find a candidate; folks aren't exactly clamoring for that $100/year salary.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) hasn't released its list yet, but it will look a lot like this one. We often hear from readers who want to know the best way to spend their political-donation dollars. For those folks, we will note that money goes much further in state legislative races than in just about any other kind. (Z)