Dem
47
GOP
53
As we have noted, we'll be giving a fair bit of attention to gubernatorial races this cycle, perhaps even more than we give to U.S. Senate races. In part, that is because there are more gubernatorial races (2 this year, 36 next year) than there are Senate races (33, all next year). In part, that is because, due to term limits, there are considerably more gubernatorial races that will, or might, result in the election of a non-incumbent (20 or so, as compared to 6 or so for the Senate).
One of the states where term limits will mean a guaranteed change of leadership is New Mexico, where Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is termed out. This week, Joe Biden's secretary of the interior, Deb Haaland, announced that she is going to run to replace Lujan Grisham. Haaland's launch video is here, if you would like to see it.
Haaland naturally has wide name recognition, not to mention being well-connected within the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, the New Mexico Democratic bench is not all that deep, so her entry into the race might clear the field for the Democratic primary. On the Republican side, nobody has jumped in yet, though Mayor Greg Hull of Rio Rancho and 2024 U.S. Senate candidate Nella Domenici are considered strong possibilities.
Given New Mexico's general blueness (it's gone blue in the last five presidential elections, has two Democratic U.S. Senators, and all the offices elected statewide are currently held by Democrats), you might assume that if Haaland makes it to the general, then that's the ballgame. Fair enough, particularly if you consider that Haaland is pretty popular, and that there's a good chance that 2026 is a blue wave election, as midterms tend to go against the party that holds the White House.
That said, the last time New Mexico elected consecutive governors from the same party was in the 1970s and 1980s, when four Democrats in a row were picked. Since 1991, the job has alternated regularly between Democrats and Republicans—a total of three each (i.e., R-D-R-D-R-D). So, don't reach any firm conclusions until the race properly takes shape.
If Haaland is elected, she'll be the first Native American woman to serve as governor of a U.S. state. In that eventuality, she would join two or three Native American men who have pulled off the trick: former Oklahoma governor Johnston Murray, current Oklahoma governor Kevin Stitt and, assuming your definition of "Native American" includes "Native Hawaiian," former Hawaii governor John Waihee. (Z)