Feb.10

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Abigail Spanberger Should Send Elon Musk a Thank You Card

As noted above, the Trump administration in general, and Elon Musk in particular, are hell-bent on firing as many federal workers as they can as fast as they can. Almost 150,000 federal workers—and many more federal contractors—live in nearby Virginia. They will feel the brunt of these firings. So what?

Well, Virginia always holds its gubernatorial election the year after the presidential election, so there is one in 2025. Although the primary is in June, it is virtually certain that the candidates will be former CIA spy and later representative Abigail Spanberger (D) and current Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA). This is probably the most significant election of 2025, so here are pictures of the candidates:

It is expected to be a tight race, but if large numbers of federal workers have been fired by November or fear for their jobs, they are going to blame the Republicans. That's just politics, but it puts Earle-Sears in a difficult position. As a loyal Republican, she has to support the president, even as he is doing something very unpopular in Virginia. People who were just fired or are afraid they soon will be are not likely to be receptive to a message like: "It is a good thing that the president is getting rid of waste in government and firing unproductive workers." A recent poll from Christopher Newport University has Spanberger at 44%, Earle-Sears at 39%, and 16% undecided. But the time remaining between now and the election is basically forever and many important events are sure to happen before the election.

Some people tend to see the Virginia gubernatorial election as a bellwether for the House elections the next year. It has a mixed record:

It is not a perfect predictor. 7 right, 3 wrong is a decent record, but it is not quite as impressive as hitting .700 in baseball. (V)