Dem
47
GOP
53
From the above, it should be clear that the House is nowhere near a budget bill that could get 218 votes. But bills other than revenue bills can originate in either chamber, so the Senate has sprung into action to start the reconciliation process. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, has scheduled markup sessions for Wednesday and Thursday, during which the budget resolution will be drafted. Once there is a budget resolution, other committees could start to propose spending in their respective areas. The Judiciary and Homeland Security Committees will be asked to propose spending $175 billion each, Armed Services will be asked to propose spending $150 billion, Commerce, Transportation, and Science will be asked to propose $20 billion, and the Environment and Public Works Committee will be asked to come in no higher than $1 billion. That says something about Graham's (and Trump's) priorities. In all, nine committees will be given instructions on how much to ask for. Although Graham is setting the top-line amount, the committees can fill that in as they please, adding or cutting programs as they prefer. The resolution will instruct the various committees to come up with corresponding spending cuts to make the math work.
Easy-peasy, no? Not quite. The Senate bill is only about the budget. It leaves all of Trump's other priorities for a later bill. The idea is to get a quick win on the budget that Trump can brag about. The only problem is that Mike Johnson wants a single megabill that contains everything—budget, border, energy, and the kitchen sink—all in one bill. When the Senate bill shows up, what will Johnson do? He could abandon his single-bill plan and try to pass the Senate bill, but if Chip Roy and Ralph Norman torpedo it, what then? Also keep in mind that if Elise Stefanik has not been confirmed yet, a third "no" will be needed to kill the bill.
Also in the mix is the debt ceiling. Will that be in the bill? And how will Democrats react? Will they try to keep the lights on in return for small concessions or will they go to the mattresses and oppose everything in order to show the country that the Republicans can't govern and prepare themselves for 2026? We'll see. (V)