Dem
47
GOP
53
Democrats like to be known as the good-government party that plays by the book and is nice to everyone. But New York State Democrats, at least, have decided that bringing a water pistol to a gun fight might not be the best idea anymore. They have finally decided to make a stand where they can. Donald Trump nominated Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to be ambassador to the United Nations. She doesn't have any diplomatic experience, but her district, NY-21, does border on what is currently a foreign country and on a really clear day she might be able to see it 130 miles away from her front porch in Schuylerville. She is known to be tough with the presidents of Ivy League universities and if she can handle them, surely she can handle Russian and Chinese diplomats. Her confirmation by the Senate is virtually assured.
As soon as Stefanik is confirmed, she will have to resign her seat in the House. Then Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) will call a special election to replace her. What exactly does "then" mean? Under current New York State law, the special election must be held within 90 days of the vacancy. However, Democratic state legislators suddenly feel that with such a short campaign period, well-known current politicians have too much of an advantage over ordinary citizens who might want to run. Consequently, they have formally introduced a bill to allow the governor to call special elections as late as November. The bill will be taken up today and could even pass and be signed today.
Turns out some of the legislators can count to at least 218. The Republicans won 220 House seats last November and Democrats won 215. Three are currently or soon will be vacant, but two of them are in Florida and will be filled by special elections in April. These are heavily Republican districts, which will bring the score to 215D, 219R. If Stefanik's seat remains vacant until November, the Republicans will hold a 4-seat edge for most of the year.
What that means is that if two Republicans vote "no" on some bill, it will be a tie, 217-217. The House does not have tiebreakers, and a bill that is tied fails. Could it happen that two Republicans have the spine to vote "no" on the upcoming budget bill and the bill to keep the government running when the debt ceiling arrives? Well, Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Ralph Norman (R-SC), members of the Freedom Caucus, have made it clear that unlike Elon Musk, they think Congress is still relevant and want deep cuts in the budget, otherwise they are "no" votes. If the special election in New York is indeed scheduled for November, that will increase their power and determination because then all it will take is their two votes to torpedo anything.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) might try to make a deal with the Democrats on the budget and the debt ceiling. Then the Democrats will have to choose. If they play ball, they could probably get some minor concession on policy (e.g., an increased child tax credit). But if they refuse to play ball and there is no budget and the government shuts down (which would make Roy, Norman, and Musk very happy), it will be easy for the Democrats to run in 2026 on a platform of: "Republicans had complete control and they can't govern." Traditionally, Democrats don't like to play politics when actual people get hurt as a result, but now that the stakes are so high, they could decide to try it.
If the Democrats can hold all their own House seats in 2026 and flip only three Republican seats, they would have a majority. This would block Trump's final two budgets and make sure he couldn't get any laws passed. They could also impeach not only Trump, but other officials. Imagine a House debate about impeaching Musk. The Democrats could air all of the illegal things he did (assuming he is still a DOGEy). The Republicans would argue that since Musk is not a government official, he can't be impeached. That doesn't matter. The goal wouldn't be to actually impeach him. The goal would simply be to give what he is doing massive publicity to turn the country against him in preparation for an "Eat the billionaires" campaign in 2028. The end result of the "debate" could be a decision not to impeach him, although if the House did formally impeach him, it could get interesting. Also, the House could actually impeach cabinet officers and others who had committed high crimes and misdemeanors. Surely by Jan. 2027 there will be plenty of them. (V)