Dem
47
GOP
53
It was rumored that Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) was thinking that, instead of being a (somewhat neutered) medium-size fish in a very big pond, he might like to be a very big fish in a medium-size pond. Today, he will make it official, throwing his hat into the race to replace the term-limited Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO).
It is at least possible it will be a barnburner of a Democratic primary. Colorado AG Phil Weiser is already in and, while he had the race all to himself, he managed to bank almost $2 million in donations. Obviously, he has already won statewide (in fact, he's done it twice). That said, Bennet has won three times statewide, is much better known and, according to those who follow Colorado politics, is more popular. There's been no polling of the race with Bennet as a candidate, but there WAS a poll with four other potential candidates, including Weiser. In that poll, Weiser came in fourth out of four, with just 8% of respondents backing him. The leader in that poll was Rep. Joe Neguse with 20% support; one has to imagine that if a representative can more than double Weiser's support that a senator will certainly be able to do it.
Colorado has not set the date for its 2026 primaries yet, but once the Democratic primary is over, the odds are pretty good that the election is over. First, while the Centennial State was once purple, it's got two Democratic senators, every statewide officeholder is a Democrat, the last three governors were Democrats, and the state has gone Democratic in presidential elections for 20 straight years. So, it's a blue state now. Meanwhile, consistent with the Democrats' general dominance these days, the Republican bench in Colorado is thin. It is true that four of eight members of the Colorado U.S. House delegation are Republicans, but three of those individuals are in their first terms in Congress, and the fourth is Lauren Boebert. That leaves the GOP field with a bunch of unknowns—a couple of state legislators, a small-town sheriff and a businessman, so far.
Meanwhile, in another state that used to be purple but is now pretty blue, Rep. Ilhan Omar (DFL-MN) has taken a pass on next year's U.S. Senate race, and instead will run for reelection to her seat in the U.S. House. This is not surprising. Omar is a pretty poor match for Minnesota as a whole (too lefty), while she's an excellent match for her district. House members do not often give up very safe seats for very longshot Senate runs. We would not be surprised if the DNC and/or the DSCC also leaned on her a bit. It's not fair, but if Omar was to win the nomination, the Republicans would make her into the face of the Democratic Party in 2026. And that would not likely work out well for the blue team.
This means that the only Democrat-Farmer-Laborers officially in the race to succeed the retiring Sen. Tina Smith (DFL-MN) are Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa López Franzen. If anyone else is going to get in, the likeliest possibilities are Reps. Betty McCollum or Angie Craig, or state House Minority Leader Melissa Hortman. As the GOP bench is about as thin in Minnesota as it is in Colorado, the only Republicans to declare are former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze and former NBA player Royce White. That's a Schwarze and a Black guy, neither of whom have served in political office at any level. So, you have to like the DFLers' chances, regardless of which candidate survives that primary. (Z)