Apr.11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

In the House: Budget Blueprint Passed, but Johnson Can't Break out the Champagne Just Yet

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) pulled a rabbit out of a hat yesterday, and persuaded a bunch of far-right holdouts, who had declared the Senate's budget blueprint to be "DEAD ON ARRIVAL," to reverse course and to allow the process to move forward. The final vote in the House was 216-214, with Reps. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) joining all the Democrats in voting "nay."

So, what changed? Based on reporting from various sources, it appears that there were three keys in getting a bunch of House GOP "nay" voters to "yea":

• A Little Political Theater: Yesterday morning, Johnson arranged for a (somewhat rare) joint press conference with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD). The Speaker observed that while the budget blueprint calls for House committees to look for $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, and for Senate committees to look for just $4 billion in cuts, that he is definitely committed to the $1.5 trillion figure. Thune nodded his head vigorously, and said he too is committed to finding [mumble, mumble] in cuts.
  
  
• A Promise: Johnson also told his Republican colleagues in the House that if he does not deliver on his promises, then they should remove him as speaker. This certainly sounds impressive, though it's hard to know exactly what that means. What if he gets a $1.5-trillion-in-spending-cuts bill through the House, but the bill dies in the Senate? Has Johnson failed to deliver on his promise, in that case? Or what if a bill is ultimately passed that cuts, say, $800 billion in spending? Is that enough to say he delivered?
  
  
• Jesus: Late Wednesday night, the House Republican Conference held a members-only meeting that was so contentious that reporters outside the room could hear the shouting at times. Eventually, Johnson decided to bring the meeting to an end with a prayer. Everyone apparently bowed their heads and asked God to help them do the right thing for the country. Apparently, the right thing for the country was the same budget blueprint that's been on the agenda all week long. Perhaps God is lazy. Or busy trying to figure out how to tell Cleveland Browns fans that there are some things that even He can't pull off.

So, Congress now has the outline of a structure of a blueprint of a budget. The next part is actually figuring out the details, which is the hard part. The fact that the "Senate" cuts are virtually nil, while the "House" cuts are massive, speaks to the sizable differences between the two chambers. Because of Johnson's small margin of error, the Freedom Caucusers, who largely answer to far-right voters, have veto power in the House. On the other hand, Senate Republicans, perhaps excepting a few from very red states, can't afford to do anything TOO crazy.

To some extent, the same dynamic exists within the House. Yes, nearly the entire House Republican Conference voted for the budget blueprint yesterday, but a blueprint is not a budget. There are several dozen GOP members who face tough reelection battles next year, and who are really not going to want to take a hatchet to Social Security or Medicare/Medicaid. That is even more true if the economy goes into a downturn, which is more probable than not, given Donald Trump's on-again, off-again trade war. Remember, it only takes three Republican members to kill a bill, assuming the Democrats stay united. And three moderates can do it just as well as three Freedom Caucusers can.

The bottom line is that the Freedom Caucusers can have SOME cuts, but if they really believe they're going to get $1.5 trillion shaved from the federal budget, they've got another think coming. Someday soon, probably around the time the debt ceiling is about to be reached, we'll find out how hard the hardliners really are. We cannot help but observe that they talk a very big game when they are on eX-Twitter or Fox, but that they usually seem to back down. (Z)