Dem
47
GOP
53
Last weekend, in the middle of the night, the Senate passed a budget resolution telling the various committees how much they had to cut from their budgets. It was up to the committees to decide how to do it. Getting that resolution through the House is not a done deal for a simple reason: The votes aren't there. Basically, the Freedom Caucus wants much deeper cuts and has said it won't vote for the Senate resolution. This puts Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) in a bind. Donald Trump wants a big win—even more since he had to put his tail between his legs and slink off home to lick his wounds on the tariffs. He really needs this now and may lobby for it hard.
Yesterday, Johnson planned to bring the bill to the floor of the House. He hoped that the pressure that maneuver created, coupled with some whipping from Trump, would get 'er done. But despite more whipping than an Indiana Jones movie, the Speaker just couldn't get to the promised land, and so he canceled the vote. Johnson implied that it was only a few members who torpedoed the thing. Others in Congress say it was more like 30 members. We tend to believe the latter, especially since Johnson is now talking about the House just coming up with its own bill. If he was actually as close as he suggested, he wouldn't be using "back to the drawing board" verbiage.
But if the House tries to craft its own bill, it won't be easy. Republicans from high-tax blue states want the SALT cap greatly raised, but that will increase the deficit, which is anathema to the Freedom Caucus. And even if Johnson pulls off a miracle and gets a bill through the House, the Senate will never accept it. There will have to be a conference committee, which will have a huge problem on its hands because nobody is in the mood to compromise. (V & Z)