Dem
47
GOP
53
DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene (D-WA) previously announced the DCCC's list of frontline members, that is, endangered House Democrats who will get extra help defending their seats in 2026. Now she has also announced her target list, that is the Republicans who she thinks are most vulnerable. Here is the list sorted on how close the 2024 House election was. Any incumbent who won by less than 4 points last time will probably drown in a blue wave. Here is the list of targets.
| Incumbent | District | PVI | 2024 Margin | Median income |
| Mariannette Miller-Meeks | IA-01 | R+4 | 0.2% | $61,500 |
| Gabe Evans | CO-08 | EVEN | 0.8% | $92,100 |
| Ryan MacKenzie | PA-07 | R+1 | 1.0% | $69,100 |
| Scott Perry | PA-10 | R+3 | 1.2% | $67,200 |
| Rob Bresnahan | PA-08 | R+4 | 1.6% | $56,100 |
| Don Bacon | NE-02 | D+3 | 1.8% | $71,300 |
| Nick Begich | AK-AL | R+6 | 2.0% | $75,500 |
| Juan Ciscomani | AZ-06 | EVEN | 2.5% | $76,600 |
| Derrick Van Orden | WI-03 | R+3 | 2.8% | $59,400 |
| Zach Nunn | IA-03 | R+2 | 2.8% | $67,700 |
| Ken Calvert | CA-41 | R+2 | 3.4% | $70,000 |
| Tom Barrett | MI-07 | EVEN | 3.7% | $61,400 |
| David Schweikert | AZ-01 | R+1 | 3.8% | $56,100 |
| Jen Kiggans | VA-02 | EVEN | 3.9% | $74,700 |
| Thomas Kean Jr. | NJ-07 | EVEN | 5.4% | $115,600 |
| John James | MI-10 | R+3 | 6.1% | $67,500 |
| Mike Lawler | NY-17 | D+1 | 6.4% | $108,400 |
| David Valadao | CA-22 | R+1 | 6.8% | $66,500 |
| Eli Crane | AZ-02 | R+7 | 9.0% | $54,800 |
| Anna Paulina Luna | FL-13 | R+5 | 9.6% | $56,600 |
| Bryan Steil | WI-01 | R+2 | 10.3% | $68,700 |
| Young Kim | CA-40 | R+1 | 10.6% | $51,800 |
| Bill Huizenga | MI-04 | R+3 | 11.8% | $54,200 |
| Ann Wagner | MO-02 | R+4 | 12.0% | $88,700 |
| Brian Fitzpatrick | PA-01 | D+1 | 12.8% | $93,500 |
| Rob Wittman | VA-01 | R+3 | 12.8% | $90,200 |
| Cory Mills | FL-07 | R+5 | 13.0% | $66,800 |
| Mike Carey | OH-15 | R+4 | 13.0% | $69,800 |
| Monica De La Cruz | TX-15 | R+7 | 14.2% | $48,100 |
| Max Miller | OH-07 | R+5 | 15.0% | $57,900 |
| Ashley Hinson | IA-02 | R+4 | 15.5% | $59,500 |
| Andy Ogles | TN-05 | R+8 | 17.4% | $63,300 |
| Mike Turner | OH-10 | R+3 | 18.4% | $56,600 |
| Maria Elvira Salazar | FL-27 | R+6 | 20.8% | $60,400 |
| Andy Barr | KY-06 | R+7 | 26.0% | $55,600 |
The last column is the median household income for the 117th Congress. It is slightly out of date, but numbers like these don't change much in a few years. NJ-07 is still a lot richer than CA-40. The median household income for all 435 districts is $63,600. About half the targeted districts are below that and half are above it. This matters because issues that work in wealthy districts (like the SALT cap) don't work in poor districts, and vice versa. Also, in midterms, turnout is generally higher among affluent, well-educated voters than among low-propensity voters. This suggests that the wealthy districts may be easier to flip than the poor ones.
DelBene has run the DCCC before and knows her stuff. She no doubt took into account many factors, not the least of which was the exceedingly good performance of the two Democrats in the Florida special elections. This suggests that even incumbents in fairly red districts could be beatable if there is a blue wave.
Also playing a role of course is the PVI. Anything R+8 or bluer might flip in a wave. All of the districts in the hit list are R+8 or bluer. Interestingly enough, there are 10 Republican incumbents in districts that are R+5 or less red that are not targeted. These are Michael Baumgartner (WA-05, R+5), Aaron Bean (FL-04, R+5), Jeff Crank (CO-05, R+5), Chuck Edwards (NC-11, R+5), Jeff Hurd (CO-03, R+5), Kevin Kiley (CA-03, R+2), Nick LaLota (NY-01, R+4), Laurel Lee (FL-15, R+5), Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02, R+5), and Ryan Zinke (MT-01, R+5). DelBene didn't explain why they didn't make the list. It could be the incumbents greatly outperformed their district's PVI in 2024, they are incredibly good fundraisers, the district's demographics are wrong for the Democrats, or something else that makes them especially strong. There are 35 offensive targets and 26 seats to defend and a finite amount of money, so not every potential district can be a battleground. (V)