Dem
47
GOP
53
Election Day 2026 is a mere 575 days away, which means it's high time for candidates to poop or get off the pot. It's hard to believe that there really was a time in U.S. history that even presidential races lasted only 4-5 months, tops.
Yesterday, Texas AG Ken Paxton (R) made official what he strongly signaled last week, and announced that he would run for the U.S. Senate seat that Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is planning to defend next year. He does not appear to have the usual campaign video, though you can just watch Birth of a Nation and you'll get a pretty good idea.
With his litany of stunts, grandstanding, and sucking up to Donald Trump, this is a moment that Paxton has been working toward for years. He is the exact kind of candidate that gives people like NRSC chair Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) indigestion, in that Paxton is a much stronger primary candidate than he is a general election candidate. Texas Republicans skew pretty heavily MAGA, and so the two primary-race polls that have been produced this year (note: both from Republican firms) have Paxton well ahead of the not-very-Trumpy Cornyn, by 8 points (42%-34%) and by 11 points (38%-27%).
The problem for the GOP is that if Paxton does knock off the incumbent—an unusual, but not unheard of, outcome—he is a showboating sleazeball for whom cruelty is the point. It is difficult to imagine there is any meaningful number of Democratic votes for Paxton; they hate him. Independent voters (real independents, not independents-in-name-only) are not likely to feel much more warmly toward the AG. And many never Trump Republicans might well cast their votes for a Democrat to block Paxton, assuming that Democrat is fairly middle-of-the-road, and is not an outspoken advocate of gun control. Colin Allred, who challenged Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) last year, has not jumped in yet, but he hasn't given the Full Sherman, either. Now that Paxton is in, Allred may well take the plunge.
Meanwhile, over a thousand miles to the north, the NRSC got a different kind of bad news when Chris Sununu DID give the Full Sherman, and said he will not be running for the U.S. Senate seat that will be open due to the retirement of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). The former governor explained that he feels he can do more good in the private sector, which usually means one or more of these things: (1) the person wants to collect some fat sitting-on-corporate-boards salaries, after getting by on a public servant's salary for so many years; (2) the person wants to collect some fat lobbying fees, after getting by on a public servant's salary for so many years; (3) the person has some cause or job that is near and dear to their heart, and they want to follow their passion and/or (4) the person is keeping their powder dry for some other election, like the 2028 presidential election.
Sununu's decision leaves the Republicans with a list of potential candidates who do not inspire confidence, and who nearly all have carpetbagger problems. Scott Brown stole a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts in the special election occasioned by the death of Ted Kennedy. Lily Tang Williams is a perennial candidate, and most of her bids for office came in Colorado... as a Libertarian. Corey Lewandowski is rather more Trumpy than most New Hampshire Republicans, and is much more closely identified with Massachusetts than with the Granite State. All of these folks were in a holding pattern while waiting for Sununu to decide; presumably one or more of them will strike while the iron is hot, and jump in very soon. The Democrat in the race is likely to be Rep. Chris Pappas, who may well avoid a primary challenge. Against Sununu, Pappas would have been an underdog. Against any other Republican, he'll be the favorite. Against Lewandowski, he'd be a pretty heavy favorite.
There is one footnote here. If Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) decides to give up a near-certain reelection for an even shot at becoming a senator again, she would be a serious candidate, but probably not even the favorite and would allow a Democrat to become governor. With Sununu out, she has plenty to think about. (Z)