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The Trade War Officially Begins Today

By the time you read this, the wild and crazy tariffs announced by Donald Trump will have officially kicked in. It's no longer just a threat, it's for real.

Because the Trump who cried wolf has already backed down on tariff threats three times in less than 2 months, many folks on Wall Street were betting that the President was just playing a big game of chicken, and that he would somehow blink. When it was clear that there would be no blinking, the markets sank yet again. Yesterday, the Dow Jones was down 320.01 points (0.84%), the S&P 500 was down 79.48 points (1.57%), and the Nasdaq was down 335.35 points (2.15%).

In fact, not only did Trump not back down, if anything, he doubled down. At least, he did when it comes to China. During the day, he announced additional tariffs on that nation, with the result that, as of today, imports from China will have a 104% tariff. In the evening, he gave a speech to the National Republican Congressional Committee and boasted about his "war on the world" and that "They ripped us off left and right. But now it's our turn to do the ripping."

It is hard for us to understand where that 104% figure comes from. We've plugged the numbers into our own tariff-calculating equation, as shown below:

It is extremely complicated, and absolutely
nonsensical

According to our figures, the correct tariff rate for China is actually a billion skillion percent. What are these people in the White House doing, setting it at only 104%?

In all seriousness, trade policy is hardly our bailiwick. However, we do know enough to know that Chinese president Xi Jinping is a long-term thinker who does not need a quick "win" and that he helms a nation that finds itself with a much larger number of very interested trade partners than was the case, oh, say, 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, Trump is approaching this like it's a real estate negotiation, and one with the owners of Ma and Pa's Country Kitchen and Budget Motel. Even without much in the way of expertise, we have a pretty good idea of which approach is more likely to pay dividends.

The other problem, beyond Trump's approach to negotiation, is that it's still not entirely clear what the heck he wants, exactly. Senate Republicans are pushing hard for answers as to what the endgame is here. Other nations, even the ones that are home to many white people, can't get Trump or one of his people on the phone, to begin even preliminary negotiations.

Who knows when we will learn something beyond "It's war against the world"? Maybe today, if the stock market really freaks out in response to the tariffs actually being in effect. Trump is also scheduled to meet with Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni next Thursday, with the idea that she'll act as a middlewoman between the U.S. and the E.U., presumably because she speaks fluent Fascist. So, maybe we'll gain some clarity then. Your guess is probably about as good as that of anyone in the White House. (Z)



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