Apr.08

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

John James Announces Gubernatorial Run

Rep. John James (R-MI) is looking at a tough campaign in 2026. His district, MI-10, is R+3, and is exactly the kind of district that is likely to flip in a blue wave, even one of moderate size. This being the case, he decided that if it's going to be a tough campaign anyhow, it might as well be for a bigger prize than a seat in the House. So yesterday, he announced he is jumping into the race for the governorship of Michigan.

The good news for James is that, in a Republican primary field that's already crowded, he has a clear upper hand. He's polling at around 40% among Republican voters, which is about as much as the other declared Republican candidates—Minority Leader of the Michigan Senate Aric Nesbitt, truck driver Anthony Hudson and construction manager William Null—combined. Indeed, the most popular alternative to James is "undecided," at around 35%.

However, once James (likely) claims his party's nomination, we see a lot of bad news for his candidacy, and virtually no good news. To wit:

• He has run statewide in Michigan twice, as the Republicans' nominee for the U.S. Senate in both 2018 and 2020, and he got crushed both times. It seems that Michiganders are not buying what he's selling.
  
  
• In contrast to his Senate runs, James now has a record that Democrats can use against him. And it would appear they have some pretty good ammunition. In particular, James is one of those who had been dodging town halls since Trump v2.0 commenced.
  
  
• James, naturally, is planning on running a "throw the bums out" campaign. In his announcement, he said: "For the past seven years, Michigan has been dominated by radical, out-of-touch policies that have hurt our families, our communities, and our economy." However, with an approval rating that is at or near 60%, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) really isn't a bum.
  
  
• If bums ARE going to get thrown out in 2026, those bums figure to be Republican. Both historical trendlines and current events argue for the aforementioned blue wave. (Our apologies to British, Canadian and Australian readers if we have inadvertently put the image of Republican bums into your heads.)
  
  
• If Donald Trump is radioactive by 2026, James can't really distance himself. The Representative is well-known as an outspoken Trumper.
  
  
• The Democratic side of the contest is also crowded, but with strong candidates. Whoever survives the blue team's primary is likely to be solid.
  
  
• This notion that "Black guy" + "Republican" = "electoral gold" has rarely, if ever, been sustained. For every Sen. Tim Scott, there are five Herschel Walkers.

For what it's worth, there have been two polls of the race that assume that Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the Democratic nominee and James is the Republican nominee. Those two polls gave Benson a lead of 3 points (37%-34%) and of 12 points (42% to 30%). It is worth noting that Mike Duggan, who was a Democrat and the mayor of Detroit until last year, is running as an independent and is polling at around 18%. As readers will know, independent candidates always do better in polls than they do at the polls. If he's still in on Election Day next year, it is probable that some of his "support" will migrate to candidates who actually have a chance of winning. Given that he is a Democrat in all but name, it's not too big a stretch to think that there are probably some hidden votes for the Democrats' nominee in the 18% currently backing Duggan. (Z)