Dem
47
GOP
53
The 2028 Senate election in New York, when Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is up for reelection, is awfully far in the future. Nevertheless, the liberal group Data for Progress ran a poll on the race. For what it is worth, in a primary matchup between Schumer and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), AOC leads Schumer 55% to 36% among likely Democratic primary voters.
The poll also did more than just ask for a choice. In one variant, some voters were given positive statements about each candidate. In another, some voters were given lines of attack about each the candidates. In all variants, the results were roughly the same, with AOC almost 20 points ahead of Schumer.
Given the group's clear preference for AOC, these results should be taken with a barrel of salt. Still, why did the group even bother? One reason might be to get AOC thinking about running. If more polls show that she would beat Schumer in a primary, she would be more inclined to go for it. Another reason might be to show Schumer that he can't win the primary, so it would be better for him to leave on his own terms and retire in 2028, rather than being trounced by a young woman of color who has a track record of trouncing older white establishment men. No doubt this poll will stimulate other, more neutral, pollsters to run polls on the same primary. (V)