Dem
47
GOP
53
Yesterday, there were a couple of bits of news about notable upcoming elections. Starting in Virginia, former representative Abigail Spanberger (D) has played her hand well. With her combination of name recognition, fundraising prowess and connectedness within the Democratic Party, she scared off all comers, and secured her party's nomination for governor without opposition.
Because that is one of two gubernatorial elections this year, and because Virginia is considered a bellwether due to its proximity to Washington, Spanberger is going to be in the news a lot between now and November 4. On the Republican side of the contest, there are currently three candidates, two of them serious. Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is the better known of the two GOPers, is Black, and is not terribly Trumpy. Former state senator Amanda Chase is the lesser known of the two GOPers, is white, and describes herself as "Trump in heels." Polling suggests that Earle-Sears will claim the nomination, and then will enter the general as an underdog to Spanberger, with projections spanning from "2-point underdog" to "15-point underdog." The primary is on June 17, and the general is on November 4.
Meanwhile, just a wee bit north of Virginia, New York City Mayor Eric Adams made official something that has been suspected for at least a couple of months: He will run for reelection as an independent, rather than try to secure the nomination of the Democratic Party.
This is a savvy move, in that Adams had no real hope of prevailing in the Democratic primary, which will be held on June 24. Declaring as an independent means that he's guaranteed to appear on the general election ballot, and that he'll have some time to rebuild his brand, and to try to convince New York City voters that he's not a crook.
That said, this is really just a move from "no shot" to "long shot." He's going to hope that he can hold on to some Democratic support, steal some Republican votes from people who want to block the actual Democratic nominee (presumably Andrew Cuomo), and somehow piece together a plurality. However, people do not generally like to vote for independents, particularly those with a 20% approval rating. On top of that, because Adams certainly walks like a crook, and talks like a crook, the New York City Campaign Finance Board has decided that he will not be eligible for matching funds. So, he's going to have to run a shoestring campaign, or else get the Turkish government to pony up. We'll see on November 4 if he's able to pull off a miracle. (Z)