Dem
47
GOP
53
Things could get exciting in Texas. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) was expected to cruz to reelection easily. However Texas AG Ken Paxton (R) is apparently planning to challenge Cornyn in the primary. It could be a humdinger. Cornyn is a conservative, but he is an institutionalist and not excessively Trumpy. Paxton is a crazy, fire-breathing Trumpist.
Trump doesn't get to vote in Texas primaries, yet he could determine who wins it. He undoubtedly would prefer that Paxton be in the Senate rather than Cornyn. And if he endorses Paxton in the primary, there is a good chance that Paxton could beat Cornyn. But then there is a nonzero chance that Colin Allred (D) could run again and actually beat Paxton due to the latter's "candidate quality" problem. The big question is whether Trump can restrain himself enough to simply keep out of it and say "It is up to Texas Republicans to determine who they want in the Senate." Trump is not good at restraining himself.
Also, it doesn't help Cornyn that, in 2023, he said: Trump's "time has passed him by" and he shouldn't run in 2024. Trump responded by calling Cornyn a RINO. Trump never forgets slights and that could affect his endorsement, if any.
Cornyn and Paxton hate each other. Paxton, whose full name is Warren Kenneth Paxton Jr., is an ultraconservative on everything and has been pushing the envelope very hard on enforcing Texas law. He is also a fanatic about prosecuting people of color for voting.
Recent polling has Cornyn with an approval rating of 48% and Paxton at 60% among Republican voters in Texas.
Paxton is more than a bit sleazy. On July 28, 2015, a state grand jury indicted him on three counts related to securities fraud. His lawyers stalled for years. On March 26, 2024, he made a plea deal in which he agreed to pay $300,000 but not admit guilt. The case was then closed.
But there is more. Paxton is too much even for the Texas legislature. On May 27, 2023, he was impeached on 20 articles of accepting bribes, pushing a donor to hire the woman with whom he was having an extramarital affair, and abusing his office in many ways. The vote was 121-23, including 60 Republicans. In the resulting trial, there was a bit of a problem, since Paxton's wife is a state senator, but the state Senate voted to bar her from voting. On Sept. 16, 2023, Paxton was acquitted with 14 guilty votes and 17 not guilty votes. Will any of this bother Trump? Or will he see it as a plus? Maybe we will find out. Democrats need to pick up four seats to control the U.S. Senate in Jan. 2027. Maine and North Carolina top the list, but they need two more. If Paxton is the Republican nominee in Texas, that could be #3. If Cornyn is the nominee, he will win easily. (V)