Dem
47
GOP
53
Although we are normally Senate-focused in the midterm cycles, this time the House is more likely to flip than the Senate, so we will focus on House races a bit more than we otherwise would. Also, the 38 gubernatorial elections (two in 2025 and 36 in 2026). In many cases, the partisan outcome is known even when the candidates are not, but even within the parties there are differences, so primaries matter. No one would confuse Liz Cheney with Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX).
Anyway, Democrat Raúl Grijalva died last month and his seat will be filled by a special election. The district sprawls over the southern part of Arizona, from just south of Phoenix to Tucson and then covers the entire border area with Mexico. The filing deadline is April 14, the primary is July 15, and the general election is Sept. 23.
Grijalva's daughter, Adelita Grijalva, is already in politics. She is a Pima County supervisor, as her father was before he went to Congress. She has now decided to run for dad's seat. Maybe she found a big stash of "Grijalva for Congress" bumper stickers in his garage she can use. Her first statement was: "Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and their gang of billionaires are destroying our nation. They're destroying our schools. They're attacking our most sacred rights. They're poisoning our environment. But together, we will stop them. This fight starts right here, right now, in southern Arizona." That pretty much sums up her platform.
If elected, she would be the first Latina elected to Congress from Arizona. The state just elected a Latino, Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), to the Senate and the district is more heavily Latino (60%) than the state as a whole (31%) so being a Latina, as well as the daughter of a popular 11-term congressman, is going to make her a real force in the primary. As to the general election, well, the district is D+15, so it would take a very special Republican to even make a race of it. (V)