Apr.02

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Democrats Have a Good Day. Maybe Even a Very Good Day.

Maybe you heard there were some pretty big elections yesterday. After all, we had a rundown on Monday. Here are the results for the various races we previewed:

• Wisconsin: The biggest of the big contests yesterday was the race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which attracted a staggering $90 million in donations, much of it from the pocket of Elon Musk. Because the stakes were high, turnout was very high for an off-year, semi-special election. Nearly 2.4 million Wisconsinites showed up to cast ballots (for comparison purposes, 3.2 million Wisconsinites voted in last year's presidential election, while about 2.6 million voted in the 2022 midterms, with a U.S. Senate seat on the line).
  
  The winner in the judicial race was Susan Crawford, who was the preferred candidate of the Democrats in the officially (but not really) nonpartisan election. She won in a rout, taking 55% of the vote to 45% for the Republican/Musk/Trump candidate, Brad Schimel. This is not exactly going to do wonders for Musk's reputation as a kingmaker. It would appear that money can't buy you love, and it also can't buy you a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. The threat that Musk will fund a primary opponent to [GOP congressperson X] if they don't fall into line will presumably have a bit less salience going forward. And if even a few Republican members feel comfortable rebelling against the Co-Presidents, that could kill, say, a budget bill.
  
  In the other statewide race, nonpartisan-but-really-a-Democrat Jill Underly defeated nonpartisan-but-really-a-Republican Brittany Kinser to be re-elected as state superintendent of public instruction. That race was a bit closer than the judicial race, with Underly winning 53% to 47%. Maybe Schimel was a particularly poor candidate. Or maybe there are some otherwise Republican voters who are repulsed by Musk and anything he touches. Truth be told, we think it was probably a little from Column A, and a little from Column B.
  
  Republicans did get one statewide win last night, but it wasn't a person, it was a ballot proposition. The initiative enshrining the state's Voter ID law into the Constitution passed by a huge margin, 63% to 37%. Clearly, voter ID laws are popular with many people who are not registered Republicans. This may be why the GOP has been able to hammer on this subject for 10+ years. Of course, given the changing demographics of the parties, Republicans may come to regret their enthusiasm.
  
  On the local level, in the race for Dane County's county executive, nonpartisan-but-really-a-lefty-Democrat Melissa Agard trounced nonpartisan-but-really-a-Republican-pretending-to-be-an-independent Stephen Ratzlaff by 60 points, 80% to 20%. Agard was incumbent, but only by virtue of having won election for an unfinished term 5 months ago. So, yesterday's election was for a term in her own right. In November, she "only" won by 23 points, so if she continues to grow her support at this pace, and she runs for reelection again in 4 years, she will win 117% to -17%.
  
  Meanwhile, in the other county executive election in the Badger State, it was nonpartisan-but-really-Republican incumbent Joe Doemel against nonpartisan-but-really-Democratic challenger Gordon Hintz for leadership of Winnebago County. Hintz' campaign was built around blaming Doemel for budget cuts that have hit the county, and in particular its school system, very hard. And, OshKosh B'gosh, Hintz pulled off the upset. So, Democratic-backed candidates went 5-for-5 yesterday, which could be an early indicator for how the political winds are blowing in purple states in response to Trump v2.0.
  
  
• Florida House Seats: While the message sent by the results in Wisconsin is fairly unambiguous, the Florida results are much more open to interpretation. The Republican version is this: Both special elections were won by Republican candidates, who produced results fairly well in line with the PVIs of the two districts. FL-01 is R+19, and Jimmy Patronis (R) defeated Gay Valimont (D) by 15 points, 57% to 42%. And FL-06 is R+14 and Randy Fine (R) defeated Josh Weil (D) by 14 points, 57% to 43%.
  
  So, all is well for the GOP in the Sunshine State? Well, not so fast. Back in November, Matt Gaetz won FL-01 by 32 points, while Mike Waltz won FL-06 by 33 points. So, compared to those results, Patronis underperformed by 18 points and Fine underperformed by 19. Is this a demonstration of the power of incumbency, or of the difference between a regular election and a special election? Or does it speak to some level of unhappiness with Donald Trump that is either getting Democrats to the polls or causing Republicans to stay home? Anyone who can figure out which dynamic is the key one could make a lot of money as a prognosticator right now. And, as of yesterday, MSNBC is hiring.
  
  
• Mayors: There were also four mayoral races yesterday. In Aurora, IL, incumbent (and Trumpy) Republican Richard Irvin lost to Democrat John Laesch, 52% to 48%. In Evanston, IL, about 50 miles northeast, the pretty pinko incumbent Daniel Biss (D) crushed a less pinko challenger, Jeff Boarini (D), 60% to 40%.
  
  The other two mayoral elections were primaries. In Omaha, NE, incumbent Jean Stothert (R) made the cut with 38% of the vote; her opponent will be Democrat John Ewing Jr., who claimed 31.1% of the vote. And in Jackson, MS, allegedly corrupt incumbent Chokwe Antar Lumumba (D) was sent packing by state Sen. John Horhn (D). His opponent, such as it is, will apparently be Kenny G. No, not the jazz saxophonist. This Kenny G is a cop whose real name is apparently Kenneth Gee. The good news for Kenny G is that he claimed 40% of the Republican vote. The bad news is that fewer than 400 Republicans showed up to cast ballots. By way of comparison, about 23,000 Democrats voted. Given that Jackson is one of the Blackest and one of the bluest big cities in America, this makes sense. What it boils down to is that Kenny G has about as much chance of becoming the next mayor of Jackson as Kenny G does.

We also previewed some school board races, but the biggies were in Alaska, and the results for those aren't in yet. Of course, those are relatively small potatoes, and regardless of how they turn out, Democrats have to feel pretty good about what happened yesterday. (Z)