Apr.01

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Democratic Presidential Candidate of the Week, #39: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

It's going to be a while before we get to someone who is truly viable. That said, sometimes a dark horse emerges. So, we have to do what we can to cover our bases.

• Full Name: Bernard Sanders
  
  
• Age on January 20, 2029: 86
  
  
• Background: Since "Bernie from Brooklyn" is one of the most famous politicians in America, his story is likely well known to readers, but just in case: He was born in New York to a homemaker mother and a traveling-salesman father. We never thought about it until writing this, but we're not sure if traveling salesman (specifically traveling paint salesman) counts as "blue collar" or "white collar." What it definitely counted as was "lower middle class"—Sanders has often noted that while his family was not poor, there was never money for extras.
  
  During his high school years, Sanders was interested more in extracurricular activities than in his classes, and he excelled in both track and basketball. In college, first at Brooklyn College, and then at the University of Chicago, this remained the case, although "sports" was replaced by "activism." The future politician not only joined the standard lefty groups of the 1960s (CORE, SNCC, etc.), but also the Young People's Socialist League, therefore commencing a lifelong affinity for socialism.
  
  After taking his degree, Sanders tried his hand at a gaggle of different jobs, including teacher, filmmaker, writer, psychiatric aide and carpenter. Disliking the hustle and bustle of the big city, he relocated to Vermont, taking up residence in the town of Stannard, which was then home to 88 people (that's rather fewer than Chicago). That might have been a bit TOO rural, as Sanders quickly relocated to Montpelier, and then to Burlington. The latter is the largest city in Vermont, but with a bit more than 44,000 people, it wouldn't crack the Top 50 in California or New York. Clearly, at least for Sanders, it was a happy medium between giant Chicago and tiny Stannard, as he still lives in Burlington today, his 55th year as a resident.
  
  
• Political Experience: Sanders' political career got off to an inauspicious start. His first election was for class president in high school, and he finished a distant third (and last) place, with a pretty lefty campaign that focused on taking care of orphans of the Korean War. Admirable, but a bit outside the scope of a student council president. He followed that loss with four more, running as the perennial candidate of the far-left Liberty Union party for various offices in the 1970s. That included two runs for governor of Vermont.
  
  Sanders' fortunes finally turned around, ironically enough, in the same election that gave America Ronald Reagan as its president. He ran for mayor of Burlington as the candidate of a different lefty party, the Citizens Party, and won in a nailbiter, with a margin of victory of just 10 votes. He governed as a self-identified socialist, focused particularly on increasing the minimum wage. He proved an effective administrator, and was reelected to the mayoralty three times. A fifth term was Sanders' for the asking, but he decided that it was time to give someone else a turn. During his years in the mayor's office, he did some unorthodox things that attracted national attention, including hosting a public access show called Bernie Speaks with the Community and recording a folk album called We Shall Overcome.
  
  Although Sanders has never confirmed this publicly, it is probable that his decision to end his time as mayor was prompted by Jim Jeffords' (R) decision to run for the U.S. Senate. This left Vermont's U.S. House seat open, and Sanders took a shot at it in 1988. Running as an independent, he finished second, with 38% of the vote, losing to Peter P. Smith (R). In 1990, Sanders tried again, still running as an independent, but also getting the Democrats to throw in with him. He won that election and then was reelected six times. In 2006, when Jeffords decided to step down after three terms, Sanders tried for another promotion. This time, he was successful on his first attempt, which was fortunate for him because the other Vermont seat was then occupied by Senator-for-almost-life Patrick Leahy (D). Sanders has been in the Senate ever since, which means he's been reelected three times.
  
  Adding it up, and Sanders' record in runs for office (not including student council, but counting his two failed presidential bids) is 15-7. Most of those seven losses, however, were longshots where Sanders did not expect to win, and he was just looking for more visibility for himself and/or his issues.
  
  
• Signature Issue(s): Social class. That's not exactly an issue, per se, but it's as close as we can come to capturing Sanders' program in a nutshell. He thinks rich people have gotten too rich and poor people have gotten too poor, and his focus is on trying to fix that.
  
  
• What Would His Pitch Be?: "I get younger voters excited in a way that other Democrats do not."
  
  
• Instructive Quote: "I'm not always a smiley kind of guy."
  
  
• Completely Trivial Fact: Sanders says that his first lesson in the heartlessness of capitalists came in 1957, when his beloved Brooklyn Dodgers were spirited away to the other coast by millionaire team owner Walter O'Malley.
  
  
• Recent News: While many Democrats seem to be paralyzed, Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) have undertaken a rally tour, trying to lift the spirits of the anti-Trump forces, and to encourage resistance. It could not be clearer who the heir to the Bernie throne is.
  
  
• Strengths for the Democratic Primaries: (1) If Sanders ran, it would be his fourth presidential cycle, and he still commands the loyalty of many younger Democrats; (2) In a primary field with a lot of contenders, a smallish-but-loyal base can be enough to come out on top; (3) He's one of the best public speakers the Democrats have; genuine in a way that you just can't fake.
  
  
• Weaknesses for the Democratic Primaries: (1) He's old; (2) While Sanders is popular with young men, and he made some inroads with Latinos in 2020, he's never solved his problem with Black voters, and Black voters play a BIG role in Democratic primaries, particularly the early ones; (3) Did we mention he's old?
  
  
• Polls: We're going to have to work through quite a few entries before we get to someone the pollsters are actually asking about. However, according to YouGov, he's the third-most-popular Democrat in America. And the two Democrats above him—Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter—can't run for president in 2028, albeit for different reasons.
  
  
• How Does the Readership Feel?: We asked readers for their thoughts on Sanders running for president; here are some of those responses:
  
  
  • B.H. in Frankfort, IL: Personally, I love Bernie and his ideas. However, I wouldn't vote for him in a primary. His age, his lack of any real legislative accomplishments, and his socialist label combine to make him unelectable. I admire him, but his time has passed.
    
    
  • J.J. in Johnstown, PA: I think Sanders will play a big role in the 2028 election, but not as the nominee. He's just too old. His popularity is, and will likely remain, very high. I would expect him to have a fair bit of influence over the party platform and be a major surrogate for the nominee.
    
    
  • W.V. in Andover, MN: Bernie's simply not a Democrat, he's a socialist. Presidential candidates should stay in their own lane. No one would expect Democrats to nominate Liz Cheney for President, simply because she is a famed Republican Anti-Trumper! As a mainstream, moderate Democrat, Sanders angered me in 2016, when Democrats should have been united behind Hillary Clinton. In the wildly-diverse 2020 field, he was both too far to the left and visually old and frail. A great legislative voice for the far left, Sanders was already too old in 2020, let alone 8 years later, when the far left has a much younger, much more exciting option just getting started in the presidential field in AOC.
    
    
  • G.K. in Blue Island, IL: There is a role in American politics that, in my opinion, has been gradually vanishing, and that's the role of "Senior Statesman"—someone who is generally above reproach in their personal and professional life, has been in politics long enough to have acquired an enviable amount of experience and wisdom, speaks truth to power, but whose words are not tainted by an overweening ambition or apparent ulterior motive. I like that role for Bernie Sanders, much more than anything presidential.
    
    
  • K.F. in Berea, KY: I grew up and came of age in Vermont. For most of my life Bernie has been a congressman or senator for me and/or my family. I met with him in his office in 2003 about TRIO programs and I was taken aback by his honesty, genuine concern for people, and his willingness to listen to his constituents. This is something I naively thought all politicians did for their constituents. In fact, I moved to Kentucky in my mid-twenties and found out real quick that most politicians are NOT like that! I remember bringing my Hoosier wife to the state capitol for a Fourth of July party. I jokingly said, "We can see if Bernie wants to stump for me in a state house run!" She said, "Yeah, right... he won't be there." We didn't so much as park and there was Bernie walking up the street. He stopped and we had a nice chat and my boys were able to meet him. Unfortunately, I believe he's a bit long in the tooth to be president. I'd like to see him be a kingmaker. I never did ask him to stump for my non-existent state house run. I am proud to say that I have voted for Bernie in every election in which he was on my ballot. Living in Kentucky for the last 20 years gives me a unique experience on getting to know two stellar candidates for president. I can't wait to sing the praises for Gov. Andy!
    
    
  • D.H. in Durham, NC: I continue to believe that Bernie would have won the 2016 election against Trump, as he would have also been able to connect with the working class and would have split that vote. No way would Bernie have lost the blue wall states. Then our long national nightmare never would have started. Alas, the Democrats, as always, played it "safe" and shot themselves in the foot by being afraid of Bernie and having amnesia regarding how significant the underlying dislike/hatred of Clinton was. That said, Bernie's window, sadly, has closed.
  
  
• The Bottom Line: Bernie's time is past. If he was the nominee, everyone would be making this basic joke: "To their credit, the Democrats realized that Joe Biden's age was a problem. However, they somehow concluded that the issue was that he was too young."

Next week, it's #38 Al Franken. If readers have comments about him running for president in 2028, please send them to comments@electoral-vote.com.