Dem
50
GOP
50
If you want to know which House race is the most important, look for the one where the most money has been spent. In this cycle, the winner is NY-19, a district that runs from the New York City exurbs west to the Catskills and over to the Finger Lakes district. It covers parts of Dutchess, Orange, Rockland and Westchester Counties, and all of Putnam County. So far, a total of $36 million has been spent there. That is an extraordinary amount for a House race, even for one with a PVI of EVEN. Even for a Senate race, that would be a lot. Here is the district:
The race pits Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY) against challenger Josh Riley (D). In 2022, Molinaro barely beat Riley, who figures that in a presidential year, he will have a better chance. Molinaro understands that he is in a tight race, so he is repeating J.D. Vance's lie that Haitians are eating cats and dogs. Will that work in the CATskills? Or with the childless cat ladies? Who knows? But the race has become extremely negative. Molinaro is calling Riley an elitist D.C. lawyer who pushed far-left progressive policies. Riley is calling Molinaro an abortion extremist.
As a sign of the importance of the race, the DNC has opened seven offices in the district, staffed by 12 paid employees. This is unheard of.
This is one of five swing districts in New York represented by Republicans that Democrats are targeting. All of them are being bitterly fought, but this is the only one with a PVI of EVEN, making it ground zero. (V)