Dem
50
GOP
50
The elections this year show an exceedingly divided country. Right now, our map has Kamala Harris at 276 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 262. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has an article on why Nevada could go red this year, in contrast to most previous years. Nevada has an unusual economy, highly dependent on the hospitality industry, with many workers earning much of their living through tips. The state's population is 28% Latino and Latinos have been trending Republican recently. All in all, Trump has a good chance of picking off the state.
What would happen then? The current 276-262 score would then become 270-268, still enough for a Harris win. However, our model assumes that Trump will win all five EVs in Nebraska and Harris will win all four EVs in Maine. Most likely, Harris will win NE-02 and Trump will win ME-02, so the two districts cancel out and it is the same as a Trump sweep of Nebraska and a Harris sweep of Maine. However, there is a realistic chance that Trump could win Nevada and also both NE-02 and ME-02. That would result in a 269-269 tie. This is not some wild-eyed fantasy. It could happen. Harris knows this and is spending millions of dollars in NE-02, sometimes referred to as "the blue dot."
If it ends up 269-269, we get a contingent election, with the House picking the president in an election with each state having one vote. It is possible that the House could end up with as many Democratic delegations as Republican ones, although that is unlikely because the small states with a single House member are mostly Republican. But if the House is deadlocked, then the Senate gets to pick the vice president, who would act as president until the House picks a president.
But right now, we have the predicted Senate at 50-50. This is slightly misleading, because in the Nebraska regular election, union leader Dan Osborn is slightly ahead of Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE). He isn't actually a Democrat, but an independent. If he wins, he might caucus with the Democrats, the way the four other Senate independents do. Still, there is a small, but real chance that the Electoral College will deadlock at 269-269, the House presidential vote will deadlock at 25-25, and the Senate will deadlock at 50-50. Talk about a divided country. If all three of these things come to pass (unlikely, but possible), the speaker of the House will act as president until the deadlocks can be broken. But it is not a sure thing the House can elect a speaker. In 2023, it took 15 ballots to elect a speaker. If the House can't elect a speaker, then the president pro tem of the Senate is next in line. But if the Senate is 50-50, there won't be a president pro tem. Next in line is the secretary of state, so we could get Acting President Tony Blinken because cabinet officers' terms do not automatically end on Jan. 20. Stranger things have happened. (V)