Dem
50
GOP
50
We haven't had a chance to tie up loose ends here, but we just have to do it today, because the next debate is nigh (see below). To start, there is much pressure on Donald Trump to agree to do a second debate with Kamala Harris. She has committed to another tilt on CNN on October 23, if he is amenable. And take this with a grain of salt, perhaps, but Fox's Bret Baier said that it's still possible that he and his network might host a debate, but that the hold-up is... Trump.
Thus far, Trump is adamant that there will be no more debates. His excuses are twofold: (1) Two debates is enough, and (2) people have already started voting, so it's too late. Needless to say, neither of these passes the smell test. Historically (in the era of presidential debates, 1976-present), there have been three debates for the presidential candidates, and they are generally held very close to the election. So, "two debates" and "can't do it in late September because people are already voting" are both standards created out of thin air. Further, if the start of voting means there is no longer a need to talk to voters, then why is he still campaigning, holding rallies, airing commercials, etc.? Clearly, he desperately wants to avoid another debate because he hates prepping for them (even a little), and he knows he got bulldozed by Harris at the first one. This is even more obviously true if Baier is right, and Trump isn't even willing to debate in the friendly confines of Fox.
Moving along, we did not get a chance to run down the results of the Bingo game. We are not thrilled that it's taken this long, but we would be even less thrilled if we never got to it. Much of the delay was because we thought that the website we used to collect responses was not working properly. As it turns out, it was actually Microsoft's fault. We could have sworn we heard that cloud computing and applications-by-subscription would be SO MUCH BETTER for users. Hm. Anyhow, we are very much indebted to reader S.C. in Mountain View, CA, who helped us with the spotting of things.
To start, of the 30 possibilities we came up with (assisted by readers), only four did not actually come to pass. Here they are:
That means that 86.6% of the things that we and the readers predicted did come to pass. We know that some readers think this sort of thing is silly, but in our view, there are actual lessons to be drawn. In this case, we think the lesson is that the talking points and issues raised during the debate were very, very predictable. That may help explain why, despite a clear win by Harris, the debate didn't move the needle very much. Anyone who's following politics at any level has pretty much heard it all before.
And now, here are the things that were uttered, in order, along with details:
| Order | Predicted Item | Time (ET) | Notes |
| 1 | Reference to the price of eggs, milk, gas, or any other specific, daily-use commodity (20 points) | 6:03 | Harris talking about specific goods for children |
| 2 | China/tariffs/Xi Jinping (50 points) | 6:05 | Trump talking about how great tariffs are |
| 3 | Trump: "the greatest ever/in history" or "the worst ever/in history" (10 points) | 6:06 | Trump talking about inflation |
| 4 | Reference to the border/immigration (10 points) | 6:07 | Trump talking about the economy |
| 5 | Reference to Project 2025 (20 points) | 6:08 | Harris in follow-up on economy question |
| 6 | Trump: "people say/people are saying" or "people tell me/people are telling me" (30 points) | 6:09 | Trump talking about how people give him credit for rebuilding the military |
| 7 | Trump: "Communist" or "socialist" or "Comrade" (40 points) | 6:15 | Trump "She's a Marxist" |
| 8 | Name of any president besides Trump/Joe Biden (80 points) | 6:17 | Trump mentioned Ronald Reagan |
| 9 | Harris: Calls Trump a liar (70 points) | 6:18 | Harris: "A lot of lies" |
| 10 | Harris: References abortion policy/reproductive freedom (10 points) | 6:19 | In response to question on abortion access |
| 11 | Trump: "Unfair" or "Very unfair" (30 points) | 6:21 | During response on abortion |
| 12 | Trump: Skepticism about Harris' race (100 points) | 6:22 | Question about the issue from David Muir |
| 13 | Reference to Joe Biden's age or mental capacity (90 points) | 6:23 | Trump: "If you can call him a boss, he spends most of his time on the beach" |
| 14 | Name of any person who served in the Trump administration (70 points) | 6:31 | Trump bragging that he fired Mark Esper |
| 15 | Name of any former member of the House (100 points) | 6:32 | Harris: Liz Cheney endorsed me |
| 16 | Afghanistan/withdrawal from Afghanistan (30 points) | 6:33 | Trump blasting Biden's handling of the situation |
| 17 | Harris: References Stormy Daniels or E. Jean Carroll (90 points) | 6:35 | Harris alludes to Trump's history of abusing women |
| 18 | Harris: Calls Trump a felon or criminal (50 points) | 6:36 | Harris: lengthy rundown of Trump's legal problems |
| 19 | Reference to the environment/climate change (70 points) | 6:42 | Harris discussing fracking and the Inflation Reduction Act |
| 20 | Name of any current member of the House (90 points) | 6:46 | Trump attacks Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) |
| 21 | Trump: Whines about 2020 election (60 points) | 6:51 | Trump talks about the election being unfair |
| 22 | Russia/Vladmir Putin (40 points) | 6:56 | Trump monologue about foreign leaders |
| 23 | Israel/Benjamin Netanyahu (20 points) | 6:57 | Question about Israel from Linsey Davis |
| 24 | Gaza/Palestinians/Mahmoud Abbas (60 points) | 6:58 | Harris response to question about Israel |
| 25 | Ukraine/Volodymyr Zelenskyy (40 points) | 7:09 | Question about Ukraine from David Muir |
| 26 | Name of any current state governor (80 points) | 7:29 | Harris: Tim Walz and I are both gun owners |
This list reiterates that the candidates, especially Trump, have become predictable. It also gives some sense of what Harris' and Trump's priorities were in terms of getting their talking points in there, even if they didn't really make sense in the context of the questions being asked.
The maximum possible score was 570 points. Harris laughed at Trump 16 minutes in; that was the tiebreaker. And now, here are the readers with the 25 best scores:
1. S.H. in Lake Helen, FL (540 points; 10 minutes)
2. M.L.C.D.J. in Indianapolis, IN (540 points; 6 minutes)
3. J.G. in Berkeley, CA (530 points; 13 minutes)
4t. F.C. in Simi Valley, CA (530 points; 7 minutes)
4t. C.D. in Berlin, Germany (530 points; 7 minutes)
6t. G.G. in Lexington, KY (520 points; 8 minutes)
6t. M.D. in North Canton, OH (520 points; 8 minutes)
8t. E.L. in Dallas, TX (510 points; 11 minutes)
8t. T.L. in West Orange, NJ (510 points; 21 minutes)
10. J.S. in Hightstown, NJ (510 points; 10 minutes)
11. T.P. in Chattanooga, TN (510 points; 5 minutes)
12. Z.H. in Portland, OR (510 points; 38 minutes)
13. B.B. in New York City, NY (500 points; 12 minutes)
14t. R.L. in Lakewood, OH (500 points; 10 minutes)
14t. K.T. in Longview, TX (500 points; 10 minutes)
16. B.R.P. in San Diego, CA (500 points; 7 minutes)
17. J.S. in Pittsburgh, PA (490 points; 17 minutes)
18. M.R. in Atlanta, GA (490 points; 13 minutes)
19. K.B. in Washington, DC (490 points; 20 minutes)
20. D.S. in Edinburgh, Scotland (490 points; 10 minutes)
21. L.A. in Waynesboro, PA (490 points; 5 minutes)
22. C.M.S. in Lancaster, CA (490 points; 50 minutes)
23. C.S. in Catasauqua, PA (480 points; 13 minutes)
24t. S.F. in Silver Spring, MD (480 points; 12 minutes)
24t. D.M. in Batavia, IL (480 points; 12 minutes)
The average score was 355.8 points. We'll do another bingo game for the VP debate; if you have suggestions for the squares, please send them to comments@electoral-vote.com, preferably with subject "Bingo Squares."
We also have one last handful of debate comments that we promised to share, and that we want to share. Here goes:
T.B. in Santa Clara, CA, writes: A family's debate response:
My family of four (my kids are 20 and 16) watched the entire 2-hour debate over dinner and beyond. I honestly didn't expect it, but nobody even looked at a phone! Everyone actually paid attention, with a bit of kibitzing and laughing now and then. Then we had a 2-hour discussion afterwards where the kids each shared their thoughts and observations about the process and proceedings without my wife or me leading them.
Both of them commented on Donald Trump's angry body language vs Kamala Harris' more cheery and in-control body language. My oldest complained that neither one of them seemed to answer the questions posed to them. He suggested that each debater should get a "yes" and "no" button in front of them, and their mic needs to stay off until they at least push one of the buttons to answer the question. My youngest noted that Trump evaded every single yes/no question, even when the moderators reminded him of the question, while Kamala answered a couple of them or, at least, didn't divert off topic.
They pointed out that Kamala gave a few policy proposals, whereas Trump literally said "I have concepts of plans" at one point! Haha. What is a "concept of a plan!?!" We all also laughed at how he literally brought up immigration in EVERY answer, just as Kamala said he would.
Speaking of immigration, my oldest (who doesn't follow politics closely because he thinks they're all liars) didn't trust or understand Kamala when she said "He'd prefer to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem" when talking about Trump killing the immigration bill. He said her answer was so obscure that someone like him who didn't know of the actual event wouldn't understand it. He said she should have clearly said, "the Senate was ready to approve the bipartisan bill, but Trump called multiple senators and forced them to vote against it because it would eliminate his ONLY policy, rendering him useless." I had been frustrated at the weedy and indirect "he'd prefer to run on a problem" comment before my son mentioned it, but his wording would have really nailed it.
Finally, when both kids pointed out how many times the moderators let Trump get in the last word instead of cutting his mic, my oldest also said that on the internet, when someone always has to have the last word, and they post a paragraph rant, everyone automatically knows that person lost the argument because all they had left was a nonsensical rant. This wasn't something I picked up on (I was just annoyed that it happened), but I wonder if all Gen-Z'ers were turned off by that.
R.P. in Kāneʻohe, HI, writes: I thought I would share the view from my living room Tuesday (the debate started at 3:00 p.m. local time out here in the middle of the Pacific—hence the glare-y backlighting in the photo):
I have to say your write-up of the debate was, objectively, pretty-much on the mark. Fair enough—it wasn't an absolute, out-of-the-park grand slam for Vice President Harris. Sure, maybe the needle only moved slightly leftward in terms of actual impact to the election outcome in November.
However, I'm sure I'm not alone among your readership in having experienced an hour and 45 minutes of steadily increasing elation over the course of the debate. Framed against the context of the previous presidential debate, watching this recent debate from the perspective of the blue team was positively glorious! It's not difficult to imagine how, in an alternative (and, arguably, far more plausible) universe in which President Biden had made a different decision, this second debate could have played out very differently. Boy howdy, what a difference 2½ months can make! So, while your assessment as viewed through the lens of a low-information/undecided voter was appropriate and largely correct, I think there is a subtler but not necessarily insignificant deeper dynamic in play here, related to enthusiasm and, for lack of a better word, "momentum," which this debate helped fuel. And, of course, the post by Taylor Swift—itself directly associated with the debate—further bolstered that sentiment.
S.W. in New York City, NY, writes: It was clear to me that Kamala Harris was in command at the debate. What struck me is how "at ease" she seemed to be—she actually looked as if she were enjoying this experience. When both candidates were in camera view and Trump was speaking, she looked relaxed and poised and showed off that photogenic smile. As every actress on film knows, you don't ever want to be in the same camera frame with a more beautiful actress right next to you, as you'll never look as good. This certainly appeared to be the case in the debate—Trump looked old and angry while she looked young, confident, smart and energetic.
And then there was Trump's babbling, while Harris articulated clearly. The one thing I kept thinking during this debate was: "How much money is Harris now raising per minute?"
D.C. in Myersville, MD, writes: When the front page of National Review looks like this, you know your night didn't go well:
S.D. in Canton, MI, writes: When I watched the debate, I was moved by the seemingly mild statement the Vice President made regarding her time as a prosecutor, when she said that she never asked if a person was a Republican or Democrat, but just wanted to know if they were OK. She then went on to say that she wanted to be a president for all Americans.
I felt the sincerity of that statement as genuine warmth and love for people who won't vote for her, and in many ways engenders the values that many Democrats have been waiting a long time to see, particularly those "tree hugging hippies" who simply want a kinder, nicer world to live in, and otherwise would not have voted because they might have seen a "typical candidate" that says the right things but lacks the charisma of a human being. Many will not pay attention to that, as it will undoubtedly be drowned out by other soundbites and noteworthy sentences during the debate, but it bears mentioning.
R.G.N. in Seattle, WA, writes: I was a bit worried when Kamala Harris walked over to Donald Trump at the beginning of the debate and shook his hand. Think about it; do I really want to vote for someone who shakes hands with a convicted felon?
P.C. in Wellsville, OH, writes: After watching the debate, I think the only way Donald Trump will agree to do another one is if it's on Fox. Harris should insist on Newsmax instead. Go for the low-budget unprofessional clown show if you're going to do right wing media, not the one that fancies itself a quasi-respectable news organization. Trump can't say Newsmax is unacceptable either because their audience is his base.
F.P. in Philadelphia, PA, writes: So, to avoid the debate, I went to watch the Phillies game. Missed my connecting train home, so went to a bar to wait for the next train, and the debate was on (though, mercifully, muted, as music was playing). Watching like that, I figured out my take on the debate: He looked like a crotchety old man, trying to return soup, while she looked like the calming doctor, trying to explain to him that he doesn't have any soup, he's in the waiting room for his colonoscopy... which he very much received, last night.
And, with that, we finally close the books on the Harris-Trump debate. Well, except for the next item. (Z)